September 28, 2007

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Outlining the logic of the Flat Rate for Music, and more details on ‘Music Like Water’ Part 1 Lately, a lot of people have been asking me why I am so sure that a Flat Rate for Music would be a good thing, how it can be brought about and how it may actually work. Since I have just started preparing for a potentially mind-boggling (ehem) keynote speech at the Flat Rate Music event in Iceland (Oct 17, 2007) I am getting pretty well tuned up on this, so, here is a bit of a FAQ on the flat rate and what I have come to call 'Music Like Water'. I will publish more details as I proceed but please feel free to chime in with questions and comments that I can work into the next few posts on the topic – thanks. First of all, these statistics below, gathered by eMarketer, clearly illustrate the current conundrum - albeit from a U.S. centric point of view so some of this may or may not apply to Europe in exactly the same way; please have mercy on me in this regard as I am still fishing for more intel on this. Basically, what’s happening is that a much higher percentage of the total population is actually buying music today (32% of the U.S. population in 2006, versus 20% in 1980), BUT (and this is a very big but) the amount spend per capita has been almost halved – and that does not even account for inflation since $100 is obviously worth a lot less now than it was in 1980. In fact, what cost $100 in 1980 would cost $267.76 in 2006 so $198 back in 1980 would be $530 today - I guess one could safely summarize that if we adjust for inflation it has actually shrunk by 75%! Why is this happening? Well, for one thing, people...

Gerd Leonhard

Keynote Speaker, Think-Tank Leader, Futurist, Author & Strategist, Idea Curator, some say Iconoclast | Heretic, CEO TheFuturesAgency, Visiting Prof FDC Brazil, Green Futurist

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