Image via WikipediaIn my work on the future of media, technology and content I often run across related areas such as tourism, banking, energy and transportation; and I have recently ventured into some of those sectors, as well (in particular, tourism - more on that, soon).
So here is a short burst I want to share from the world of transportation: I think the Cars of the Future will become more like Social Objects. Of course, this will vary drastically from country to country (and cultures) but I think that an increasingly large percentage of cars will cease to be owned, maintained, paid and used by one party only. Instead, groups of people will have fractional ownership (as the brilliant Kevin Kelly calls it), i.e. use, share or access the car when and where they need it, and thereby using motor vehicles much more efficiently.
This will be true for plain-old functional cars ('just get me from A to B') as well as for fun, sports and other special-purpose cars. The obvious advantage of enormous cost and energy savings will make this concept pretty much irresistible - the only thing that keeps most of us from doing this now, already, is our reliance on the car as a status symbol and (indeed) as some weird guarantor of 'personal freedom' (yes...I am guilty, too). I believe that this will turn around within the next 3-5 years: if you DO own a car, just for yourself and your own enjoyment, people may well consider you hopelessly old-fashioned; and not much admiration will come your way any longer.
I also reckon that within the next 2-3 years many Europeans will not really enjoy individual driving that much any more, with lower and lower speed limits becoming a constant headache, mega-traffic jams and congestion charges and significantly increased chances of delays. This will lead to a much increased demand for high-quality public and semi-public (i.e. first and luxury class) transportation, which will be even further boosted by the fact that people will of course be fully connected anywhere and anytime they travel - and since they won't be busy driving they can take full advantage of this.
We will see steep increases in car-sharing services of all kinds (e.g. Zipcar in the U.S.), and the concept of self-driving electric cars will probably become a reality much sooner than we think - just click the icon on your mobile and the next available car will show up on your doorstep; hop-in and be driven to your destination without lifting a finger.
Driving yourself will increasingly become an exception rather than the default. Talk about change: 100s of Billions of $$, and Trillions of brain-cycles freed up. Think about what we can do with all that time we used to spend on driving. Tele-learning, networking, co-creation, crowdsourcing... here we come!
Gerd, Great post. I'm not a big fan of America's use of cars and despise driving myself. I would much rather ride and be able to take in the scenery or read while moving from place to place. It't too bad for me that America's public transport system is highly inefficient making driving the norm for me and most people. There is a great documentary called The End of Suburbia that tracks the history and development of the suburbs and commuting into the city (get it at Netflix).
I've been tracking the up and coming idea of Personal Rapid Transit and think its the next step for major cities. Very cool idea I'm sure you've heard of: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_rapid_transit
I also think they should use the "bailout" to create a better rail and personal transport system throughout the U.S. Instead of bailing out the car companies so they can MAKE MORE CARS, put them in charge of building the new transit system. Detroit definitely has the expertise to build the machines (trains, pods, etc). Now you've created new jobs and eliminated traffic, pollution, and road rage (GGRRRRR) all at the same time! I think in the new world where media is endless and free supplied to personal devices via nationwide WIFI (or WiMAX or whatever) then this almost has to be the case or everyone will crash into each other trying to watch the newest episode of LOST while driving to work.
Posted by: Scott | January 28, 2009 at 05:47 PM
I'm inclined to disagree completely :)
There seems to be a lot of talk in well-meaning greenie/futurist circles about cars, by people who really don't understand cars. Cars are about territory. They're a steel-reinforced personal-bubble. This is a need that they're fullfilling.
Sharing is a compromise. We're not talking about sharing lawnmowers here, we're talking about sharing territory.
For a lot of drivers, cars are the only time they ever get to be on their own. If people wanted cars to be social objects, they'd be doing it already. But they're not. People commute on their own whenever they possibly can.
Here's what I think will happen:
The Western car industry (which is currently an innovation-zombie, and has been (willfully), for a long time) will continue it's foot-dragging decline - and will be completely blind-sided by some upstart from India or China, making vehicles (probably electric) which are basically like a cross between a rickshaw and an Aptera and they're cheap enough for everyone to have one. Girls will go for them first, then everyone will have one.
The innovation won't be in the technology, it will be in the business model - and it probably won't come from the West.
Posted by: Nick Taylor | July 09, 2009 at 12:15 PM
Dear Nick, good comment, thanks. I totally agree that cars are all about Territory -- but maybe it is becoming too costly for us to have all that personal territory; and maybe we can finally learn that sharing is an option - maybe? You are right as far as Asia is concerned - I am looking in this direction, as well! Cheers Gerd
Posted by: Gerd Leonhard | July 09, 2009 at 12:29 PM