June 13, 2009

The new business model: having the guts not to have one? It used to be that you needed business plans. Revenue models. Spread sheets. Projections. Forecasts. Analysis of every possible scenario. In short, MODELS of a new reality that you wanted to build. You then raised (or just spent) the money, you built your product, you executed. According to plan, hopefully. Idea > Model > Reality. Fast forward to today: we suddenly discover countless false assumptions that our nicely designed models were built on. We discover that by the time we roll-out our product or service the entire target market has shifted, moved on or altogether evaporated. We discover that someone in Shanghai had exactly the same idea than us - and already has 1000s of customers. We discover that we spend so much time modeling that we lost sight of what cannot be modeled: Life. Intuition. Inspiration. Context. Vision. Ideas. Improvisation. Luck. Speed. Trust. Here is a great saying by the grandfather of all management training, the formidable Peter Drucker: "Wherever you see a successful business, someone once made a courageous decision" and - in this age of the hyper-connected digital economy - this seems to be more true than ever before. We can model and analyze until the cows come home - in the end we must decide by our intuition, by our gut feeling, by understanding. Or not? What do you think - tell me (tweet, facebook, or comment below). Luckily, the fact that we are now all connected has seriously increased the potential of a much more open and flexible venturing approach: many of us literally have 1000s of people at our disposal that will help us with their feedback, their comments, tweets, blog posts. The wisdom of the crowds is starting to be useful. To evidence, here are some tweets I have found or received that...

Gerd Leonhard

Keynote Speaker, Think-Tank Leader, Futurist, Author & Strategist, Idea Curator, some say Iconoclast | Heretic, CEO TheFuturesAgency, Visiting Prof FDC Brazil, Green Futurist

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