MediaFuturist

Free webinar on September 4, 2012: Future of Television: Social, Mobile, Over-the-top...? (Stowe Boyd and Gerd Leonhard)

Please join me for this unique event (there is no charge except for your attention:)

The Future of Television: Social, Mobile, Over-the-top? With Stowe Boyd and Gerd Leonhard (The Futures Agency) on Sep 4, 2012 5:00 PM CEST

Social web strategist, speaker and blogger Stowe Boyd and futurist, speaker & author Gerd Leonhard are delighted to present this 60-minute, free webinar based on a white paper jointly developed by Stowe Boyd and TheFuturesAgency entitled 'social TV and the second screen'.

You can read more about here  (and download it via the link or directly, here )

"The overlap of social media and TV represents a huge opportunity for those that truly understand and internalize, embrace and partake in these changes, and that welcome this dawning networked, interdependent and many-to-many society"

Stowe and Gerd will briefly present some select slides and updates on the topic of the future of television (10-15 minutes each), followed by a Q&A session with the participants.

The emphasis of this event is on allowing plenty of time for questions and discussion; both via chat as well as via audio (upon individual invitation only).

THIS EVENT IS LIMITED TO 100 PARTICIPANTS. Please sign up early and be sure to show up at least 30 minute prior to the starting time to avoid disappointment.

Stowe and Gerd are both members of The Futures Agency network and often work together holding seminars and think-tank events for media and technology companies, around the globe see http://www.thefuturesagency.com/about

Find our more about Stowe Boyd
http://worktalk.ly/about_stowe/
https://twitter.com/stoweboyd/
http://www.thefuturesagency.com/stoweb

Find our more about Gerd Leonhard:
http://www.thefuturesagency.com/gerd
http://www.gerdfuturist.com
Blog: http://www.mediafuturist.com/
Mobile apps: http://road.ie/futurist
The Future of Business blog http://www.futureof.biz/
Videos: http://www.youtube.com/gleonhard
Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/gleonhard
More links: http://about.me/mediafuturist


After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.

See you there:)

 

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Article: It's true: iPads are starting to replace business PCs

Certainly true for me, when traveling!

It's true: iPads are starting to replace business PCs 

A new survey of business users by ChangeWave Research found that nearly one-third of the companies expecting to buy tablets in the next few months are using them as replacements for PCs for at least some users.

Get my free iPhone & Android apps http://mobileroadie.com/apps/Futurist

The impact of the iPod (Mashable), me: "genius of fake-control model"

Amy-Mae Elliott interviewed my for this nice Mashable piece the other day.  Here are some good snippets from me and from others that were interviewed:

Leander Kahney, editor of Cult of Mac and author of The Cult of iPod, sees the iPod’s primary impact in terms of the “connected device. “Gadgets are no longer stand-alone products,” Kahney says, “they connect to a range of software and online services. Think Internet TVs, stereos like Sonos, handheld gaming devices, GPS bike computers, in-car stereos, high-end watches, Internet radios, even printers — the list goes on and on — and the iPod was the first to do that...."

...Wikström says one could argue that iTunes has been more a hindrance to the industry than a help. Despite the billions of sales using the platform, the music industry has still suffered over the past decade. Did the dominant iTunes business model blind the industry to alternatives? “iTunes prolonged the industry’s dependence on the old model, and made them believe that it actually might be possible just to shift from CD to MP3, just as they had done in the past when they moved from vinyl to tape to CD,” says Wikström. “This is just speculation, but perhaps the most important impact on the music industry is that iTunes delayed the shift from a retail model based on control to what we now start to see emerge as various kinds of cloud-based retail models, such as Spotify and its peers.”

Futurist Gerd Leonhard, author of The Future of Content and co-author of The Future of Music: Manifesto for the Digital Music Revolution also sees iTunes playing a part in the decline of the music industry. “The genius of the iPod was (and still is, with the iPhone) that, while the music industry actually believed that it had found a good (i.e., closed and controlled) way to extract money from otherwise freeloading consumers, the iTunes/iPod/iPhone ecosystem became the dominant hardware solution for the consumption of free music.”  |itunes / control image added by Gerd, source unknown |

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• Must watch video: Introducing the New Yorker iPad App (Jason Schwartzman) (mediafuturist.com)
• "This iPhone/iPod app is probably the best way to follow his work as it delivers pretty much his..." (futureof.biz)
• The Evolution of the iPod [PICS] (mashable.com)

Amazing video: what a small child does with the iPad: it's a playing tool!

There is so much to be learned from this video - be sure to watch it. Clearly, the iPad (and hopefully, many other cool tablets that will follow in its wake now) is an altogether different way of 'computing'. GUI becomes NUI (natural user interface), at last. Finger-sweeping on a touch screen, and literally playing with the screen and the interface and the apps - definitely not a work tool as much as a reading + watching + consumption ++ playing tool. And yes, agreed, the iPad is a walled garden, it is Control in a very shameless form - and it still rocks. Confusing, maybe, but not enough to disregard or destroy or even. ...blend it.

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• The iPad Pulse Reader Scales the Charts (bits.blogs.nytimes.com)

Google TV is coming (comments and video): total Web & TV convergence is imminent. TV in the Cloud?

Everyone: this is a biggie. Check out this video below and the announcement on the Google blog. Here are some quotes from the blog, and some comments from my end:

• "Google TV is a new experience for television that combines the TV that you already know with the freedom and power of the Internet. With Google Chrome built in, you can access all of your favorite  websites and easily move between television and the web. This opens up your TV from a few hundred channels to millions of channels of entertainment across TV and the web..."  My comment: this is the total web-tv convergence, at last, and this development should certainly scare the wits out of most major TV Networks. The gloves are off, guys! So far it has been quite hard to have TV-like, living-room centric experiences using the web; obviously this is just about to change. And the advertising-dollars will migrate along with our viewing (or rather, engagement -) habits! Friction will soon be Fiction, indeed. Welcome to Media as a Service (MaaS); Content in the Cloud: TeleMedia here we come.
• "Because Google TV is built on open platforms like Android and Google Chrome, these features are just a fraction of what Google TV can do. In our announcement today at Google I/O, we challenged web developers to start coming up with the next great web and Android apps designed specifically for the TV experience. Developers can start optimizing their websites for Google TV today" My comment: Google is betting on OPEN SYSTEMS to win this game, which imho is totally the right move. Yes, there is some room and argument for closed systems (Apple, PS3 etc) but almost all major successes will be fueled by open technologies, interfaces and platforms, i.e. networked and interdependent ecosystems. Going forward future, it's win-win-win-win or nothing (sound familiar?)
• "We’re working together with Sony and Logitech to put Google TV inside of televisions, Blu-ray players and companion boxes. These devices will go on sale this fall, and will be available at Best Buy stores nationwide"  My comment: very smart move by Sony - they missed the boat on digital music, and on ebooks (at least to some extent, I'd say), so this is their chance to catch up.

Mashable has a good summary of the key 'what it means' points, here.

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Video: the Wired Magazine Tablet Application (Demo), my comments

Everyone in the content industry should watch this demo, below, of what the Wired guys are working on - it's fantastic food for thought; exciting stuff. And just gotta love Scott's Matrix-dude-like, gravely voice in beginning;). Well done, guys.

4 'IF' comments: 1) If the publishers can and will provide very addictive, immersive and interactive experiences at LITERALLY no-brainer prices or via bundled services (big 'if' here) 2) If the media companies and 'rights-holders' decide to get rid of all that crippling and legitimate user-insulting DRM and other technical protection models (remember, Protection is in the Business Model) 3) If the advertisers and brands are really going to fast-track their support for these kinds of new platforms 4) If everybody can finally resist the temptation to make this yet another 'walled garden' competition, albeit with prettier flowers....THEN indeed, we just may have something here. I'll be watching (+).

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• DRM Doesn't Enable Business Models; Blind Fear Disables Business Models (techdirt.com)
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• DRM Company: If You Think Patents Are Bad, You're Un-American (techdirt.com)

My presentation on "Content 2.0 - Monetization Examples" at MidemNet 2010

 Below is the PDF from the presentation I just did at Midem 2010 in Cannes / France (Sunday January 24, 2010, 5.30 pm). My MidemNet blog posts are here, and my presentation "Compensation not Control" from MIDEM 2009 is here. Please click through to the Slideshare site to download the PDF if desired. The video is now available, here, as well. Download: Content 2.0 Gerd Leonhard at MidemNet 2010 Public PDF 15MB

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• The Future of Media: Open, Mobile, Connected, Collaborative (presentation at MPJC 2009) (mediafuturist.com)
• The Price of Free - Reinventing the Online Economy, now in Greek! (mediafuturist.com)
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• Music Like Water and the Public Digital Music License: my presentation at A2N in Berlin (mediafuturist.com)

Content 2.0: finding new ways to generate revenues

View more documents from Gerd Leonhard.

Great Steve Jobs video, some key messages for 2010: Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish!

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

(Reposted from the MidemNet blog Dec 31 2009)

I just ran across this really amazing and very personal, moving video of Steve Jobs at Standford University: "...drawing from some of the most pivotal points in his life, Steve Jobs, chief executive officer and co-founder of Apple Computer and of Pixar Animation Studios, urged graduates to pursue their dreams and see the opportunities in life's setbacks -- including death itself -- at the university's 114th Commencement on June 12, 2005..."

Steve has some very important messages for us (summarized below); I think they offer some perfect reflection points as we move into 2010 (even though his talk is actually 5 years old!):

• The only way to do great work is to love what you do. If you haven't found it yet, keep looking!
• You are already naked. There is no reason not to follow your heart.
• Your time is limited, so don't waste it living someone else's life. Don't be trapped by dogma.
• Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish

A transcript is here, btw.   Let's make this our motto for this new decade: Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish!

Some invitations left: Future of Telecom, Media & Technology (TMT) at BLP Law in London, January 13, 2010

If you are interested in attending please contact me (eMail, Twitter); they have very few places left. It's a free event but reserved for senior executives in the TMT sectors.

 The New Year Revolution - Event January 2010

We would like to invite you to The New Year Revolution: an insight into what's on the horizon in the technology, media and telecoms sector in 2010 (and beyond!)

We are delighted to welcome Gerd Leonhard, TMT futurist as our keynote speaker.

Gerd is renowned for his presentations and think-tank appearances, which are hard-hitting and provocative yet inspiring and motivational.  His clients include Nokia, Google, Sony-BMG, Siemens, ITV, the BBC, The Financial Times and many others.

Following Gerd's keynote there will be a session bringing you up to date on important law changes for 2010.

Date: Wednesday 13 January 2010

Time: Registration, breakfast and networking at 8.30am.  Seminar 9.00am to 11.00am, including time for questions. There will be more time to network when the seminar has concluded.

Venue: Berwin Leighton Paisner Adelaide House, London Bridge, London EC4R 9HA.

via www.blplaw.com

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• The Future of Media & ICT (Bilisim Zervis 2009) (slideshare.net)
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Happy New Year: cool video: cell phones upcycled to form an interactive art installation (via Neil Perkin), 2010: all about Mobile!

Fellow Futurefeed Twitterer and London-based social media expert Neil Perkin is always good for an artful reminder; I found the video below on his most recent post. Nice one, Neil - thanks for sharing!

This egged me to predict (or rather... post-dict;) that 2010 will be all about Mobile:

• Mobile Broadband Take-Off
• Mobile Devices 2.0 (readers, tablets etc)  
• Mobile Communications X.0 (Google Wave, Twitter, apps etc)
• Mobile Reading (what... news to you? Start with my free Music 2.0 book, here;)
• Mobile Content ?.0 (drastically new, cross-media models... such as the tablet will offer)
• Mobile Applications, round 2 (and ...html5!)
• Mobile Advertising (i.e. not at all like on PC but mobile ads as targeted content) *Data is the New Oil!
• Mobile Location-Based Services
• Mobile Augmented Reality (Layar et al)
• Mobile Money (Africa, Asia)
• Mobile Me (as in...'Me' in the Cloud)
• Mobile Social Networking
• Mobile Disruption (Google Nexus is just the start)
• Mobile Music (Spotify, Pandora, RDio)
• Mobile Convergence and the coming TeleMedia Economy

As to the video: says its creator James Theophane: "Each phone is individually addressed by a computer to cofunction and create a choral arrangement.  Assigning each phone a tone, the mass is transformed into an aural form that appears to come alive, shimmering and flirting for onlookers."

Experience Mobile Mobile from James Théophane Jnr on Vimeo.

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Will this be the way we read magazines in the near future? Videos: SI.com & Wired tablet versions

I have a hunch it may well be... check it out. This is amazing stuff - the only limit is our time, and attention;)

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Crucial Intelligence: the latest Internet & Economy Trends by Morgan Stanley (via Web 2.0 summit)

Once again, great stuff by Mary Meeker and her Internet team at Morgan Stanley, via the Web2.0 summit. The video, embedded below, is good, too, but in my opinion it's the the slides that matter most: every single page packs a punch and makes you think. Great mix of facts, statistics and some key foresights. A must-read (and then... digest). Techcrunch has some great comments on this presentation, here.

Economy & Internet Trends - Morgan Stanley Presentation

View more presentations from kvjs.

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iPhone mania: there's an App for that (2 videos)

The trend towards everything becoming an iPhone app is really amazing. Go to a bar with your buddies and you'll be certain to hear 'hey - there's an iPhone app for that'! Some of us used to talk about cars, sports, tech... now it's all about 'check out my cool iPhone apps' and swapping them. Techcrunch just reported a pretty cool, 30-day online background music app by designer Philippe Starke, too. A-mazing... I'll be watching.

The official Apple version The spoof (really funny)

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Mobile broadband is set to explode - so what happens to Content Creators (90 sec video)

Mobile broadband penetration is making vast strides, around the world. Smart phones and connected devices are getting cheaper by the minute. LTE (long-term-evolution, a next generation mobile telecomunication technology) will offer mobile data connectivity at vastly increased speeds, and at very competitive prices. Jointly with a company called O2B Networks, Google is launching 16 satellites to bring low-cost or free mobile broadband to Asia, Africa and the Middle East. 

So if and when we actually have 2 Billion+ people connected to mobile broadband, in 2012 (see the forecast in the video, below), what will happen to all the Content these users will consume or shall we say... share... remix...forward...adapt? How will content creators generate revenues from this enormous, interconnected and hungry, always-on audience?

In my view, the only plausible answer is to equate network access with content access, i.e. to bundle them together - once you connect, much of the content usage is included. Revenues are derived in many different ways, including next-generation (!) advertising, bundles, sponsored access, flat-rates, freemium etc.  This video briefly explains why this is needed.

If would like to know more, please check out these resources:

Broadband Culture and the Future of Broadcasting (video)

Future of Mobile Content (presentation)

Mobile Content Futures (narrated slideshow)

Compensation not Control (video of keynote speech at Midem 2009)

Why Spotify will fail without a public digital music license (blog post)

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iPhone apps more popular than music downloads: 1 Billion downloaded in 9 months. What gives?

Image via Wikipedia

Based on what Wikipedia says I am estimating that iTunes has maybe sold a total of 6.8 Billion songs since April 28, 2003 - i.e. exactly 6 years ago. Now Apple just announced that over 1 Billion iPhone & iPod apps were downloaded around the world (a good list of the top 20 free & paid apps is at Ben Tao's blog), during the past 9 months, already. Why is that? Why is music apparently less popular than software gadgets?  Here is my 2 cents:

• The music on iTunes is always paid-for while apps are sometimes free and sometimes paid (and at different price points), and are therefore an easier sell. Try and buy is still the best way to get hooked - and iTunes does not even allow me to listen to the full track before I need to shell out my dollar! In any case, the fact that some apps are entirely free can serve as a good reminder that for the creators there are many other, equally attractive forms of remuneration than just getting immediate cash. App developers certainly seem to have many other reasons than just getting paid 'by the unit', such as creating a stronger 'Pull' for their other offerings or providing the app to get a wider audiece for their skills - and the same argument could certainly be employed for music I would reckon. Why not start with the stream-on-demand, then offer the download for free or for a very low price - but then upsell the fans to a much larger fan package, similar to what Depeche Mode is now doing with their Season Pass. The ever-resourceful Techcrunch, btw, estimates app store revenues to be $777 Million for 2009 - I would be even more optimistic than that, though, because I expect much higher sales of iPhones and iPod after the next version comes out in June, featuring the build-in FM transmitter that can send the music wirelessly to your car stereo (radio execs... are you ready for that?)
• The music on iTunes is both too cheap and too expensive (depending on how you look it it), but there's nothing that fits the "free stuff + premium" package that people like so much these days (such as for my favorite, Instapaper) which is how most people get hooked on the good stuff. In this world, Freemium Rules, indeed.
• Most apps are really cheap and it's easy to part with a few dollars for something that may have real value for me - especially if one of my peers has just recommended it. I have purchased at least 40 apps, and I can tell you that the barrier to purchase an app is much lower than the barrier to buying songs at $1 / Euro 1. And yes, sure, unlike music the apps can't be gotten for free anywhere else (apart from what can be done with jailbroken iphones I guess) and that certainly is a factor - but even if they could be 'pirated', I would venture to say that I would still pay for them on iTunes, because it's LIQUID, quick, convenient, low-cost and no big deal. If the music industry can achieve the same (and not just on iTunes!), than you'll see those numbers go up, for sure. Liquid and friction-less are the keywords here - and that, to me, as you may have guessed, means the digital music flat rate.
• Mobile phone apps are about ME, about my personalized style and experience. The apps give me the power to select what I like, try it and love it or hate it. See a guy's apps and you can get a feel for who he is (yes... that goes for women, too, but unlike guys you probably don't see them comparing iPhone apps over a drink;). If we can make music -and other content- more personal, more customized, too, my hunch is that would help boost the sales, as well.

So, Music Industry, here is my recipe:

Lower Price Points + Freemium + Customizing + Value-Value-Value = Revenue Growth

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