Just got this new video - it was a good talk, imho, even if the camera angle is kind of odd... so check it out. Thanks to Incisive Media for making this available; more details on the conference are available here
My topic: "Everybody is talking about 'data is the new oil' aka big-data. SoLoMo (social local mobile) is the battle cry of the day. Human-machine interfaces are rapidly evolving and may quickly become commonplace (think Google Glasses, MSFT Kinect), artificial intelligence is the geek-phrase-of-the-day, and Kurzweil says the singularity is near/here. So how will our world really change in the next 5 years, i.e. the way we communicate, get information, create, buy and sell, travel, live and learn? What are the biggest threats and the hottest opportunities - not just in financial terms, but also in societal and human terms...?" Here is the PDF with my slides.
This is a very nicely recorded video (thanks to the BBC NI and their fabulous studio in Belfast) and I cover a lot of ground as far as the future of media is concerned; one of my best talks on this topic, to date, imho:) Enjoy and share!
You can download the PDF with most of the slides here , or just browse my Slideshare channel. In this talk I cover most of the key topics such as 'the people formerly known as consumers', the shift from ownership to access, advertising becoming content, independence replaced by Interdependence, the end of attention monopolies, the social OS aka SoLoMo.
Special thanks to the BBC NI for making a great video and sharing it with me and everyone else. Also special thanks to Tiffany Shlain and her great work - be sure to watch 'Connected the Movie' asap!!
"Em uma sociedade cada vez mais conectada pela internet, ganham força a
colaboração e a troca de ideias como motores da inovação. Soluções
adotadas até recentemente já não se aplicam mais. Quem alerta para essa
mudança são dois estudiosos das transformações que a tecnologia vem
impondo: o norte-americano Steven Johnson, professor da Universidade de
Nova York e autor do best seller De onde vêm as boas ideias — a história
natural da inovação, e o alemão Gerd Leonhard, fundador do instituto
Green Futurist, também autor de obras como The Future Of Content, entre
outras.
A dupla de pensadores do futuro estará participando do 5º Congresso
Internacional de Inovação, promovido pela Fiergs, nos próximos dias 30 e
31, em Porto Alegre (informações e inscrições no site
www.fiergs.org.br/inovacao2012 ). Johnson e Leonhard anteciparam algumas
das ideias que discutirão no evento em entrevistas concedidas por
e-mail a Zero Hora. Confira os principais trechos.
Gerd Leonhard — Fundador do instituto Green Futurist
ZH – Como o uso cada vez maior das redes sociais está mudando a forma
como as pessoas interagem entre si e se relacionam com as empresas,
enquanto consumidores?
Gerd Leonhard – Estamos nos tornando uma sociedade conectada. Em
alguns casos, tanto “compartilhamento” e transparência poderá acabar com
nossa privacidade, mas, de uma maneira geral, esta nova era traz mais
benefícios. Consequências claras disso são um aumento radical do poder
dos consumidores, maior transparência política e declínio da corrupção,
marketing mais honesto e publicidade mais útil. Deveríamos, aliás,
descartar o termo mídias sociais porque não se trata apenas de mídia,
mas de algo que chamo de Social OS (sistema operacional social). Cada
empresa ou governo deverá se tornar conectado, aberto, transparente e
engajado. Caso contrário, iremos ignorá-los.
ZH – Alguns críticos dizem que a internet tornou disponível um grande
volume de informação, mas o uso que se faz desse conhecimento é
superficial. O senhor concorda?
Leonhard – Em 1971, Marshall McLuhan disse que a aldeia global não é
“quieta e harmoniosa”, mas tem dose considerável de barulho e caos. Não é
questão de overdose de informação, mas de filtro. É aí que os
jornalistas entram: não basta só conteúdo, é preciso contexto. Não se
trata só de volume, mas de dar relevância aos fatos.
ZH – A internet já transformou a indústria musical e agora está
mudando o cinema, a TV e o mercado literário. As corporações ligadas a
esses ramos, porém, parecem não estar faturando como antes. As empresas
terão de se habituar a ganhar menos nesta nova realidade?
Leonhard – Na era dos monopólios, as empresas estavam habituadas a
margens de lucro fantásticas porque os consumidores não tinham escolha.
De agora em diante, os preços por unidade de conteúdo estão caindo, em
alguns casos, até 90% – veja o Netflix (serviço de vídeos online) x
DVDs. As boas notícias são que mais pessoas podem ser alcançadas por
meios digitais, os custos de distribuição são menores e a publicidade
está se tornando digital rapidamente – nos próximos três a cinco anos,
veremos 50% dos orçamentos publicitários – globalmente, uns US$ 600
bilhões – migrarem para meios digitais, móveis e sociais. Há grandes
oportunidades, mas nada será como era 10 anos atrás.
ZH – Atualmente, a Apple é considerada a mais criativa e valiosa empresa do mundo. Essa posição conseguirá ser mantida?
Leonhard – Sou fã da Apple, mas essa visão de mundo extremamente
centrada e controlada que a empresa tem não se sustentará. Eles terão
mais uns bons cinco anos – a genialidade de Steve Jobs continuará a
impulsioná-los nesse período. Startups surgem em toda parte, e a próxima
Apple deverá começar a aparecer já em 2013.
ZH – Há quem aposte que o próximo grande embate no setor de tecnologia será entre Google e Facebook. Quem vencerá essa briga?
Leonhard – Há espaço suficiente para cinco ou seis Googles e
Facebooks, assim, como hoje existe espaço para DHL, Fedex e outras
empresas de correspondência. À medida em que o mundo está se tornando
hiperconectado, será mais importante quais problemas as grandes
companhias poderão resolver do que quanto elas irão faturar no próximo
trimestre.
Do Ego ao Eco ao Ícone. Rumo ao futuro sustentável pela economia criativa com Gerd Leonhard Dia 5 de novembro das 9h às 12 horas ao Museu da Imagem e Som, São Paulo. Participação de Davi Nakano (POLI-USP) e Gilson Schwartz (ECA-USP). Qual a relação entre economia verde, inovação tecnológica e novas mídias.
Data: Dia 5 de novembro das 9h às 12 horas Local: Museu da Imagem e Som - Avenida Europa, 158, Jardim Europa, São Paulo - SP, Brasil Informações: iconomia.brasil@gmail.com http://gamesforchange.org.br/gerd-leonhard-no-brasil/
Davi Nakano: Professor Doutor da Escola Politécnica-USP Revisor do International Journal of Production Economics Especialista em Economia Criativa e Gestão do Conhecimento.
Gilson Schwartz: Programa de Pós-Graduação em Meios e Processos Audiovisuais (PPGMPA-USP) Programa Interdisciplinar de Pós-Graduação Humanidades, Direitos e Outras Legitimidades (FFLCH-USP) Grupo de Pesquisa Cidade do Conhecimento.
Die These:
Musik fliesst heute überall, jederzeit und auf allen Geräten, egal ob
wir einen Download oder einen sog. Stream wollen. Der Unterschied
zwischen Anhören und Besitzen ist bereits fast vollkommen verschwunden -
und genau das ist die Herausforderung für die gesamte Musikwirtschaft.
Wir brauchen dringend neue Geschäfts- und Kulturmodelle die diesem
unwiderlegbaren Trend Rechnung tragen.
Programm:
18.30:
Eröffnungsrede / Begrüssung
18.40:
Präsentation: Eine neue Internet Musiklizenz und die Musik-Flatrate: was, wie, wer und warum?
Gerd Leonhard, Autor, Musiker, Futurist und CEO TheFuturesAgency (Basel)
19.00:
Stellungsnahmen zum Thema:
Acht eingeladene Gäste, u.a. Tim Renner / MotorMusic Berlin, Poto Wegener / Swissperform.
Zusätzlich werden eingeladen: Vertreter der SUISA, IFPI, Musikschaffenden, Parteien, IGE.... etc.
Teilnehmer werden nach Zusage umgehend bekanntgegeben
20.00:
Öffentliche Diskussion und Debatte
Update: ein kurzes Video von Gerd
Resourcen zum Thema
Gerd Leonhard: Conteúdo 2.0: ‘proteção’ está no modelo de negócio
(Content 2.0: protection is in the business model) e não na tecnologia
(pensamentos sobre o futuro da venda de conteúdo).
Abastecido pelas agitações na indústria da música e, finalmente, com a
transformação muito rápida dos livros para o formato digital, há
bastante debate em torno do fato das pessoas compartilharem
habitualmente isto é, redistribuírem conteúdo digital sem que os
usuários paguem por isso. Como se pode monetizar o conteúdo se a cópia é gratuita? Essa
pergunta é uma questão chave em todos os sentidos, seja com a música,
com livros digitais, noticiários, editoração, TV ou filmes.
Há o medo, claro, de que a partir do momento que um item digital foi
comprado por uma pessoa, ele pode ser facilmente encaminhado para
qualquer um se estiver num formato aberto, assim reduzindo
significantemente a possibilidade de que outra pessoa pague dinheiro
real por ele também (claro que o mesmo também é verídico para conteúdo
digital supostamente trancado ou protegido – só demora um pouco mais). Não ter mais controle sobre a distribuição = não ter mais dinheiro. Certo?
Here are the best snippets from Roger's review (and the rest of it is a good overview, as well!)
By Roger Tagholm
"Access not ownership, relationships not transactions and concerns over who owns the channel to market – these were some of the themes of the second World E-Reading Congress which began in London on Monday. Once again, organizers Terrapin had assembled a powerful line-up of speakers who provided a one-stop take on what is happening in the digital space. From “haptic technology” (from the Greek Haptikos, “pertaining to the sense of touch”) to “lean back” readers, this was also the place to get a jargon update and phrase fix.
The View from a Futurist
Media Futurist Gerd Leonhard kicked things off. He believes the debate will soon be about access, not ownership and said that “for those over 30 it’s very hard to understand this switch. There will be some ownership, but it won’t grow. With music, iTunes sales are flat, but streaming is growing. It will happen with books. A Spotify for books will come. If a student wants 300 books, he’ll buy a three-year subscription”. Small examples of that already exist, but Leonhard means on a mass scale, such as that being contemplated in Brazil “where the government is looking to buy 100 million devices for students so they don’t have to buy the physical books”.
He believes there is more to the future than walled gardens and that “humans need meaning, not just cool technology. In the end, meaning is money. Apple has meaning, even though it is a totally walled garden — an oligopoly, a cult.” During the next three to five years he thinks we will see telemedia convergence. “The telecoms industry will realize that it will have to make deals with ISP operators to sell content — so that if you buy this SIM card, for example, you can get ten books.
“For the consumer, access to content will become much cheaper. We cannot force the consumer to pay the same for digital as physical. Technology owners reads more, so why penalize them? We need to innovate now to keep them.”
Sharing, he maintained, should be “non-negotiable. Sharing does not create economic damage.” Publishers must engage with their customers; attitudes to piracy must be rethought (“piracy happens when motivation meets opportunity”); and publishers must build value around content “because payment works if the context is right — if there is a reason, people will pay.”
Added note: "Duncan Edwards, President and CEO of Hearst Magazines International, took an entirely different view on pricing. “We have discovered that, because of the ease of use, people are prepared to pay as much — or even more — for the digital versions of our magazines.”
Really? Not sure that maybe that have just discovered their own desire to get as much as before, and found some willing fans - rest assured, this won't last. Look at iTunes and the music industry:) People will not continue to buy songs for €1 every time they are interested. Unsustainable, imho:=)
"Music used to be a product that we bought piece by piece. Now it is becoming a public utility, says media futurist Gerd Leonhard, who argues that we will soon be constantly connected to an infinite library of songs. And when music is like water or electricity, our friends become the new music critics..."
Jeff Jarvis said in 2005 (!): "In fact, the act of consumption is now an act of creation. There are so many examples. When I search on Google, I am finding stuff for me but when I click, I am adding to the wisdom of the crowd that makes Google more effective for every searcher who follows me. When I create my iTunes playlist I am also programming my personal iTunes radio station, which I can share; that’s still individual. But when my listening habits join in at LastFM, I’ve now contributed to a collective and that collective pays me back with recommendations (hear Fred on this). When I consume content and want to save it on Del.icio.us or other such services, that’s an individual act. But the tags we create together yield amazing wisdom of the crowd that can be useful in helping people discover content, in organizing the web around topics again, in improving search results, and even in improving ad performance....
very good points, here, and so true, today: look at Facebook, Google, Twitter: their value is not (just) in owning the data but in aggregating, mining, filtering and repurposing it.
BRILLIANT video by comic author Rob Reid, showing how ridiculous the calculation of economic losses due to content 'piracy' is. Absolutely amazing how he strings the facts and hypotheses together - must watch for anyone in the content industry.
Read more here: Comic author and Rhapsody C-Founder Rob Reid unveils Copyright Math (TM), a remarkable new field of study based on actual numbers from entertainment industry lawyers and lobbyists. Rob Reid is a humor author and the founder of the company that created the music subscription service Rhapsody.
Snippets from the transcript:
"The recent debate over copyright laws like SOPA in the United States and the ACTA agreement in Europe has been very emotional. And I think some dispassionate, quantitative reasoning could really bring a great deal to the debate. I'd therefore like to propose that we employ, we enlist, the cutting edge field of copyright math whenever we approach this subject. For instance, just recently the Motion Picture Association revealed that our economy loses 58 billion dollars a year to copyright theft. Now rather than just argue about this number, a copyright mathematician will analyze it and he'll soon discover that this money could stretch from this auditorium all the way across Ocean Boulevard to the Westin, and then to Mars ... (Laughter) ... if we use pennies.
Now this is obviously a powerful, some might say dangerously powerful, insight. But it's also a morally important one. Because this isn't just the hypothetical retail value of some pirated movies that we're talking about, but this is actual economic losses. This is the equivalent to the entire American corn crop failing along with all of our fruit crops, as well as wheat, tobacco, rice, sorghum -- whatever sorghum is -- losing sorghum. But identifying the actual losses to the economy is almost impossible to do unless we use copyright math. Now music revenues are down by about eight billion dollars a yearsince Napster first came on the scene. So that's a chunk of what we're looking for. But total movie revenues across theaters, home video and pay-per-view are up. And TV, satellite and cable revenues are way up. Other content markets like book publishing and radio are also up. So this small missing chunk here is puzzling..."
This short interview on my last trip to Auckland was fun - check it out. The interviewer is Kathryn Ryan (and she really knows her stuff!). Thanks for having me, Kathryn.
Gerd Leonhard has been dubbed "one of the leading Media Futurists in the World" by The Wall Street Journal. He is the co-author of the 'The Future of Music Music2.0' and 'The End of Control'. He is the keynote speaker at the Commerce Commission conference The Future with High Speed Broadband: Opportunities for New Zealand. Play (Windows) Play (Other)
When observing the explosive growth of the mobile Internet, the ubiquitous availability of ever more powerful digital devices as well as the global boom in social networking, it becomes patently clear that there is a common economic force behind these trends, and that force is data.
In this hyper-networked society, everyone seems to want to know what we think, all the time, what we like, where we are and who we are connected to. Data (and metadata, i.e. data about data) is quickly becoming a primary force in our digital society, and since successful advertising is forever based on having good data on who is on the other end, the consumer is becoming more powerful than ever before – if he/she opts out of providing data it’s game-over. Never before did consumers wield this much power over marketers; never before could we trade our data for free goods and services in this way (eg Gmail, Skype, LinkedIn, Twitter, Facebook). The quest for data has made us powerful but it has made us dependent on its benefits as well. The Faustian bargain is in full swing.
Some pundits even argue that the only reason advertising in its ‘traditional’ form (a global business worth approx. $550 billion per year) ever existed was simply because we were not yet truly connected, and had no real way to ignore it. Interruption was the game, and the loudest yelling was the best way to sell. Now, with digital technologies in the hand of billions of consumers, we are indeed ignoring what we have no use for, and from our media we expect a lot more than meaningless noise and interruptions. If we provide our cherished data we will expect perfect matches, i.e. a sprinkler system of truly good stuff not a fire-hose of noise.
Because we can now wield data as our currency, we will no longer tolerate interruptions, meaningless pitches, disruptive pop-ups or junk email. Very soon we will be open only for truly personalized offers, real meaning, solid relevance, timeliness, word-of-mouth, and yes, real transparency and truthfulness. It’s all about merit and values that are geared 100% towards us, not to everybody else, or someone else. Our data has become our weapon, and we will barter hard with it. Trillions of dollars of marketing, advertising and public relations budgets are at stake.
Clearly, going forward, if brands and their marketers, the media, and the ads and messages we see do not provide real value we will quickly lock them out of our lives. Useful, data-rich and properly permitted advertising is indeed becoming content itself, and the-people-formerly-known-as-consumers are getting better and better at creating meta-content as well. The power has shifted from the middle to the edges ie to the users, and to the creators (and this is, by the ay, why we have so much upheaval in the content business).
Of course, the key question for marketers still is the same but has just become much more Darwinian: how can you cut the noise, how can you be relevant, be truly wanted (and possibly even loved, like Apple), make a better match, and benefit from meaningful connections? How can you turn the intent of selling into content, into engagement, into mutual appreciation? Is that even possible in the age of digital empowerment? Yelling is dead, and engagement needs permission - a tough but extremely rewarding challenge.
This is where we must consider the enormous value of data, and what it will mean to this new playing field.
Data is now generated at an exponential rate, every day, by billions of users forwarding a link, rating a site, commenting on a blog, tweeting, sharing bookmarks, allowing cookies on their devices, sharing their location, logging into websites, liking something on Facebook. Everywhere we go, everything we do, every move we make around the Net (and soon, elsewhere, as well) creates click-trails, leaves digital breadcrumbs, produces data exhaust, and creates what I like to call meta-content, ie content around content.
In our immediate future are faster mobile Internet access at a much lower cost and much cheaper, yet more powerful and smart, mobile devices, connected devices that are not phones or computers but things, objects and products; computing shifting from tethered computers and mouse clicking to tablets, touch-screens and finger-sweeping; and from downloading to cloud-tapping, which without a doubt will generate seriously more data than ever before, and at an increasing faster rate.
The mind boggles (or, as some would say, it recoils) over the possibilities as well as the challenges. data is the new oil and just like we fought over oil we will fight over data – however these fights will be visible to everyone, and will be fought in public.
Whoever gets to sift through this data, slice and dice it, move it around, make it useful, define its legal and fair use, and somehow make sense of it all, is probably going to be more powerful than Big Oil has ever been. Google, Facebook and yes, Twitter, come to mind immediately.
Something that we must certainly come to grips with is that privacy will almost certainly become something that we must act on to get back, rather than something we attain or retain by mere default. In a way, as Jeff Jarvis likes to put it 'Publicy' is now the default, and privacy is merely an option (and an action item!). Scary thought or huge opportunity? Either way, those powerful new tools of sharing and self-publishing will require that we learn to realize, accept and handle new responsibilities, as well – now that all of us can easily and constantly connect, we also need to learn new limits, new do's and don'ts – and the purveyors of this new power need to help us rather than merely seduce us.
The data that all of us are increasingly generating and constantly spreading as most of us are switching to an always-on mode, will be at the core of all future success in marketing, branding and advertising – and for that alone it's roughly worth $1 trillion already (counting advertising spend, marketing and communication budgets, data- mining etc).
If the future TV does not know who we are, where we are, what we have watched, for how long, who we have shared shows with, what we have commented on, how we rate things, then the marketers' job will become a lot harder, if not impossible. Matches can't be made, relationships can't be forced, brands can't be followed, connections are interrupted.
Getting too little or bad data – or not understanding it – will literally mean running out of gas in the middle of the desert. Therefore, the mission is to keep it all fuelled up. And just like oil, there will be a myriad of issues (hopefully, not wars) that will arise with the responsible and fair practices of drilling, pumping, shipping, refining and dispensing of data. But without a doubt these issues will be solved in due course because this Data-Oil is very potent and because the responsible use of it will light up so many households that a sufficient incentive for problem-solving exists. Telecom companies and mobile operators will want in on this game, as well – afterall, it's their networks that make this all work (for now).
My prediction is that we will see a huge influx of companies dealing with the various aspects of data drilling, shipping, refining and remixing, and that the next Exxon or Mobil may well be a data-slicing company. Hopefully, they will be more ecology minded and sustainable, though. Agencies, marketers and brands need to embrace the challenges and stake out their roles in this new Data-Oil ecosystem.
A few days ago, I did a fairly lengthy and deep skype interview with Toronto-based Marie Germain from Branding 2.0 (see her Twitter channel here), touching on many issues including the future of commerce, selling, marketing and branding, so-called social media (I much prefer the term Social OS), current issues in technology and the Internet (such as SOPA - the deeply disturbing but nevertheless impending U.S. Stop Online Piracy Act), and media / content trends.
There are some quite juicy snippets in this interview, such as:
"In an truly digital society we probably don't need marketing as we know it"
"We are moving from a society, and an economy, based on EGOsystems to a society that is based on ECOsystems (i.e. INTERDEPENDENCE)"
"The old days of commerce were based on handcuffing consumers, now it's all about attraction, engagement and conversations (being a magnet rather than using handcuffs)"
This video uses an interesting format in that it is based on an audio track that was recorded on the phone, and superimposes some related images over it. Interesting. If you just want the audio track, here it is:
From the TribeRadio Youtube post: "World-renown futurist, Gerd Leonhard, in this interview speaks of the very serious challenges businesses and brands face; he offers solutions. On a more sombre note he exposes the ploys of controllers on internet freedom, SOPA to be clear. The Wall Street Journal acknowledges Gerd as one of the leading media futurists in the world. Powerful! Incisive! Gerd is simply delicious to the ears. Keynote Speaker, Founder of The Futures Agency, Advisor to top corporations and governments, author of five books, "The Future of Music", "Music 2.0", "The End of Control", "Friction is Fiction" and "The Future of Content". Gerd's background is in music; however, today he is a top game-changer, inspiring entrepreneurship and guiding us into a prodigious digital world. To reach the Host of Tribe Radio, Marie Germain: at her blog, http://Branding20.wordpress.com or her biz site, http://MarieGermain.com..."
Be sure to check out the other audio / video interviews on here channel as well, including Jeffrey Hayzlett ('Running the Gauntlet' book, former CMO of Kodak).
"I am a longtime commentator on how the digital, mobile and social-media revolution has left Publishers reeling and in a state of total change or even disruption. This is a call to action to transform your business to embrace and conquer the digital age. Failure to do so will mean inevitable friction, market confusion and possibly a dysfunctional content ecosystem, when on the other hand you could stand to profit from long term revenue generating opportunities.
It is often said that where attention flows money follows (*Kevin Kelly kk.org), but the question is how, where and when to convert them. Today, digital natives are viewers, users, followers, friends, co-creators, co-producers or crowd-sourced collaborators, all-in-one. Going forward, data is becoming the new oil, and understanding, analysing, predicting and staying ahead of your ‘connected consumers’ is quickly becoming a MUST for your business in 2012 and beyond!
So far, technological content protection measures have not been successful. Instead, future ‘protection’ will need to come from the business models and from social cohesion. Delivering tangible value and inventing new free, freemium, feels-like-free models will be crucially important. Just look at Skype, Spotify, Amazon and the undisputed master of ‘free’ – Google. You need to asses the role ‘free’ will play in your business. How will you monetize your content and which new and innovative revenue generating concepts will transform the commercial prospects of your business? Yes, methods of monetizing content are fragmented, but also much more powerful, immediate and liquid than ever. This industry, this transitional period and the World e-Reading Congress 2012 are all key opportunities to harness your digital footprint and develop strategies that will pay dividends in solid revenue. I look forward to meeting you all at the World e-Reading Congress next May.” Gerd Leonhard, CEO, The Futures Agency – Opening Keynote Speaker 2012.
Keynote Speaker, Think-Tank Leader, Futurist, Author & Strategist, Idea Curator, some say Iconoclast | Heretic, CEO TheFuturesAgency, Visiting Prof FDC Brazil, Green Futurist
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