– Powerful mobile devices, capable of precise language translation, will belong to 80 percent of the world’s population. While this is nearly intuitive, given the ever-lower cost of phones, the real breakthrough will be ubiquitous voice recognition and translation capabilities, which will make the phones highly useful to large populations who are illiterate, or who have languages that aren’t easily written with keypads. (A question is: What would this mean for world markets and politics when ordinary people can easily communicate with each other despite speaking different languages?)
Uploaded by SaladaCorporativa on Dec 15, 2011 (note: these interviews are in English)
Video em inglês. Nesse vídeo Gerd Leonhard, autor, palestrante, CEO da The Future Agency e Professor convidado da Fundação Dom Cabral fala sobre o que o é um futurista, a carreira e a profissão de um futurista e tendências para a educação no mundo.
It was a great pleasure to be invited to contribute to the Sao Paulo / Brazil-based Fundacao Dom Cabral's innovative CEO leadership program, led by my colleague and Swiss-Brazilian collaborator and leadership guru Didier Marlier, as a visiting professor. Below is a fairly large and long (95 pages - do not print!!) slideshow with most of the important stuff I presented; needless to say this was not the usual 45-60 minute session but took pretty much the entire afternoon. I was extremely impressed with the organization and their hosts (FDC / Dalton Sandenberg) as well as with the fast and agile minds of the CEOs that attended - we had some very inspiring conversations. And Caipirinias, too;). Update: Low-res download of PDF here: PDF 11.5 MB Open Network Economy Gerd Leonhard FDC SP Low-res
Enjoy. Share. Retweet. And get my free iPhone app before it turns 'freemium'.
Fellow mobilist and DotOpen Founder Rudy de Waele has drummed up some great predictions, bottom-lines and other assorted wisdoms from 20+ really great people (including myself...for some odd reason; in any case I am really delighted to be asked to contribute - thanks Rudy!), asking us to provide input on out top 5 mobile trends for the next decade.
This effort produced a very nice slideshow that really packs a punch, see below. It includes some serious nuggets of wisdom from people such as Howard Rheingold, Douglas Rushkoff, Marshall Kirkpatrick, Gerd Leonhard,
Timo Arnall, Carlo Longino, Katrin Verclas, Atau Tanaka, Alan Moore,
Marek Pawloski, Ajit Jaokar, Nicolas Nova, Inma Martinez, Tony Fish,
Jonathan MacDonald, Willem Boijens, Carlos Domingo, Russ McGuire, Raimo
van der Klein, Michael Breidenbruecker, Robert Rice, Steve O’Hear, Ted
Morgan, Martin Duval, Andreas Constantinou, Fabien Girardin, Matthäus
Krzykowski, Rich Wong, Andy Abramson, Ilja Laurs, David Wood, Stefan
Constantinescu, Henri Moissinac, Kevin C. Tofel, Enrique C. Ortiz,
Felix Petersen, Tom Hume...
Here is my stuff, excerpted (from slide #9)
1. Mobile advertising will surpass the decidedly outmoded Web1.0 & computer-centric advertising - and ads will become content, almost entirely. Advertisers will, within 2-5 years, massively convert to mobile, location-aware, targeted, opt-ed-in, social and user-distributed 'ads'; from 1% of their their budgets to at least 1/3 of their total advertising budget. Advertising becomes 'ContVertising' - and Google's revenues will be 10x of what they are today, in 5 years, driven by mobile, and by video.
2. Tablet devices will become the way many of us will 'read' magazines, books, newspapers and even 'attend' live concerts, conferences and events. The much-speculated Apple iPad will kick this off but every major device maker will copy their new tablet within 18 months. In addition, tablets will kick off the era of mobile augmented reality. This will be a huge boon to the content industries, worldwide - but only if they can drop their mad content protection schemes, and slash the prices in return for a much larger user base.
3. Many makers of simple smart phones - probably starting with Nokia- will make their devices available for free - but will take a small cut (similar to the current credit-cards) from all transactions that are done through the devices, e.g. banking, small purchases, on-demand content etc. Mobile phones become wallets, banks and ATMs.
4. Quite a few mobile phones will not run on any particular networks, i.e. without [I mean unlocked] SIM cards. The likes of Google (Nexus), and maybe Skype, LG or Amazon will offer mobile phones that [may eventually] will work only on Wifi / WiMax, LTE or mashed-access networks, and will offer more or less free calls. This will finally wake up the mobile network operators, and force them to really move up the food-chain - into content and the provision of 'experiences'
5. Content will be bundled into mobile service contracts, starting with music, i.e. once your mobile phone / computer is online, much of the use of the content (downloaded or streamed) will be included. Bundles and flat-rates - many of them Advertising 2.0-supported - will become the primary way of consuming, and interacting with content. First music, then books, new and magazines, then film & TV.
Hugh MacLeod is one of my favorite cartoonists that covers geeky web and technology stuff, over at Gapingvoid.com. Below is a quote from his blog that makes a ton of sense to me, so I wanted to share it with you.
He says that as a working artist, he divides his day into two parts: “Bleed and Feed”.
"The Bleed Part. Taking care of business. Doing work for my clients. Working on new Cube Grenade ideas etc. Trying to find new clients etc. Trying to get my bills paid etc etc.
The Feed Part. I go and make drawings for myself. Completely non-commercial. Often no more than doodling in my sketchbook. Just me and a pen, trying to feed my well. Often accompanied by a nice glass of red.
I try to do both every day. “Bleed” gets my morning and afternoons. “Feed” happens mostly after dinner, before bedtime.
All successful artists “Bleed and Feed”, in their own way. The ones who don’t– who just try to do one or the other– tend to burn out rather quickly. That’s just Reality"
"Just about any practical task -- from changing a motorcycle's oil
filter to the proper care and feeding of a pet monkey -- can be found
on the Web on sites like WikiHow and Howcast. The sites vary widely in
their approaches. Some limit their offerings to in-house video clips,
while others employ a wiki model and make themselves completely open to
revisions from anyone..."
I am, myself, constantly amazed at how much educational, instructional and research material can be found on the web, already. My favorite source for browsing top-notch knowledge that is well-presented is Slideshare - check out my own contributions here.
The Net's tidal flood of knowledge is only the tip of the iceberg, with most major institutions of learning (such as MIT) now putting their courseware and classes online as you read this. In addition, education is going multimedia at dazzling speed, too: no longer is it all about reading. Videos, podcasts and games are moving into the 'Education2.0' turf everywhere. Just wait until 4.5 Billion people are indeed connected with high-speed mobile devices, and wait until we can actually use them to read stuff just like we read books - UI and UX is the key here.
In the future, instead of striving to just get access to information and relevant instructional materials, and to 'digest' it quickly it seems that we will need to learn entirely different things, such as:
Search and bookmark (i.e. to quickly find and evaluate what is actually relevant, and ignore / postpone the rest) - I think this will, among other things, mean using new 'zooming' interfaces such as the iPhone / iPod touch offers, and such as Microsoft's new surface computing interface allows. Directories and link-based information structures are just too slow and cumbersome if you have vast amounts of information. On this note, I also think that Social Searchwill be very big, in the future, since it allows me to search within my own, relevant community rather than the entire world, thereby applying filters that help me get a better signal-to-noise ratio (see my post and video on Web1.0 to Web2.0 etc, here). Maybe this is where Friendfeed will take us?
(Re)-Connect i.e. make connections between new information and what I already know, on the fly, and without past assumptions getting in the way of new realizations. The biggest challenge here will be to UNLEARN what I think that I already know and what I assumed still has value. As Alvin Toffler has said: "The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read
and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn"
Filter skillfully. You may recall how, if you are anywhere close to my age (late forties that is ;), we used to poke around university libraries for hours just to find a single page of information that was actually useful to our current topic? We did not have good filters available that would allow us to zoom into each topic; we had to look at everything around it, too, and while that also had some benefits it usually took a very long time. Today, using all kinds of search filters as well as human / social and machine-based recommendations, we can zero in in what we need, and get right down to it.
Experience the knowledge: pure data does not mean much until it translated into conversations and into actions. This is becoming more crucial than ever before (and I will write more on this, very soon).
My bottom line: the 'old' skills included fast reading and quickly ingesting mountains of data, the essential 'new' skill is being able to search / find, filter and connect. Having said that, I guess being able to absorb a lot of information is still a good thing I guess - but surely the truly human task is to put it all into that magic blender that makes that secret sauce. Creativity. Ideas.
Keynote Speaker, Think-Tank Leader, Futurist, Author & Strategist, Idea Curator, some say Iconoclast | Heretic, CEO TheFuturesAgency, Visiting Prof FDC Brazil, Green Futurist
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