This is a self-recorded video of my keynote speech on 'TeleMedia Futures: Making the most of the Content Opportunity' at the recent Total Telecom conference in London, Nov 7 / 8, 2011. Apologies for the somewhat less than perfect recording quality (note that the crackling sound that starts at about 2 mins into the video will seize a minute later:). You can download the PDF of my presentation here: Download TeleMedia and Content Gerd Leonhard Total Telecom Public
More presentations (100+) can be viewed and downloaded via Slideshare
I just ran across this video of my 2010 talk at USI (Paris) and I think it's still quite relevant, so check it out, below. The topic of my talk and presentation is TeleMedia, one of my most popular memes and speaking topics - see the links below. From the USI event page:
"Fast and powerful mobile internet devices, social media, real-time search and location-based services are bringing major changes to how we communicate, connect, interact, share, consume, buy and sell, and learn. The disruption has only just started. Telecoms are poised to move up the food-chain, into content, services and experiences, while TV is quickly and totally converging with the web, and mobile devices will become the way most people will experience the Internet. Soon, data is the new oil, and 'the cloud' is the oil-well.
The traditional EGOsystems are becoming ECOsystems and the big Networks must now deal with 'The Networked'. Where is the future going, where are the biggest opportunities (and for whom, and where), and how can we start to adapt to the future, today? Futurist Gerd Leonhard will present the key trends and foresights as well as the most likely scenarios in technology, media / content, communications and advertising, for the next 3 years..." You download the PDF with my slides here, btw.
I am honored to have the pleasure of working with Ericsson on a few of their pretty cool future-oriented activities, including the 2020 ideas project and the PressPausePlay movie. Here is what Ericsson says about the 2020 project:
"...Broadband connectivity and mobility are changing the way we live, the way we work, the way markets function, and the way societies operate. At Ericsson, we need to collaborate and get inspiration from people outside our business in order to adapt to these changes - people that take a stand, and that want to share and work together. which I think is just fabulous. In 2020 – Shaping Ideas, we ask 20 thinkers to share their view on the drivers of the future and how connectivity is changing the world. They describe a future where a growing population faces never before seen challenges and opportunities; where digital natives will shape their lives and the enterprises they work for, and where technology could create a global golden age...."
Naturally, there is a ton of stuff available online, on the Music Like Water riff, but if you want to start somewhere, check out my follow-up book Music 2.0 (free online / mobile version here), my MidemNet 2009 video "Compensation not Control", and my various slideshares on related topics, here (one of the best ones is 'making money with music when the copy is free')
Updated again: here is a low-tech video of the Executive Roundtable presentation (just my talk, nothing else). It's kind of home-made using a Kodak ZI8 (thanks to Jeffrey Hayzlett, Kodak's amazing CMO) but still offers good value I think.
If you are interested in attending please contact me (eMail, Twitter); they have very few places left. It's a free event but reserved for senior executives in the TMT sectors.
We would like to invite you to The New Year Revolution: an insight into what's on the horizon in the technology, media and telecoms sector in 2010 (and beyond!)
We are delighted to welcome Gerd Leonhard, TMT futurist as our keynote speaker.
Gerd is renowned for his presentations and think-tank appearances, which are hard-hitting and provocative yet inspiring and motivational. His clients include Nokia, Google, Sony-BMG, Siemens, ITV, the BBC, The Financial Times and many others.
Following Gerd's keynote there will be a session bringing you up to date on important law changes for 2010.
Date: Wednesday 13 January 2010
Time: Registration, breakfast and networking at 8.30am. Seminar 9.00am to 11.00am, including time for questions. There will be more time to network when the seminar has concluded.
Venue: Berwin Leighton Paisner Adelaide House, London Bridge, London EC4R 9HA.
A while ago, I was interviewed by the people from Ericsson Editorial Services, on the topic of "The Future of Content and Telecom". The interview was just published, today, and I am quoting it, below, while adding some relevant links and images. Ericsson has also added a pretty cool video called "Generation Gap" which I am embedding for your additional enlightenment;). Beyond this, you may also want to watch the video from my speech at eComm 2009: The Future of Content & Telecoms: Flat Rate Content Bundles and Social Media, embedded below, as well (you can download this and other videos via my Blip.tv channel)
Futurist: Telecom crucial for new media business
"Say goodbye to CDs and DVDs. In the future, most media content will be
sold digitally. And, according to Gerd Leonhard, one of the world’s
leading media futurists, telecom will play an important part in making
the new media business both legal and profitable.
Leonhard
says there are two main obstacles facing the new media business. One is
that operators don’t understand how the media world works and what it
takes to make media content popular on handsets. The other is that
media companies are unwilling to change their old ways of working. “Operators need to start to think of themselves as providers of
content, entertainment and general communication that goes beyond
messaging,” he says. “Content providers are also hopelessly stuck with
a model of selling that no one wants. For example, very few people buy
music online. People download music for free, and the same is true for
films and TV shows.”
Free content and licenses
Leonhard
believes operators have to make the first move. He says they have to be
willing to subsidize the use of content until mobile advertising
becomes mainstream, or until there are other profitable ways of
supporting media content.“For instance, in terms of music, operators should integrate legal
music services into their networks for free. If they do that, they can
become powerful providers of music ‘experiences’ and this makes it
easier for them to sell other things to get a return on their
investments.
“In Germany,
you pay EUR 150 per year for using the TV, and I believe digital music
could be wrapped into this fee,” he says. “A license system can also be
created solely for the purpose of digital media.“Let’s say the fee would be about EUR 1 per week; I think most people
would be happy to pay that amount. It would generate revenues and, even
if tax-payers refuse to pay it themselves, the money could come from
sponsors, marketing and advertising.”
Leonhard says that a “digital media” licensing system will not be
achievable without the support of telecom operators. “Telecom has the
economic power to create a licensing system because they have the
users,” he says. “If the pressure is strong enough, the content owners
will agree to public licenses and the telecom industry will agree to
pay them.” Leonhard says splitting the earnings from such a licensing system would
mirror that of a radio license. “The streaming or downloading of music
could be monitored, providing a digital footprint. And, at the end of
every month, you can see how many times a song has been downloaded and
that will decide what percentage of the pool of money the song gets in
that particular country. The more your song gets played, the more money
you get.”
No ‘going back’. In countries where licensing systems do not exist, such as the US,
Leonhard proposes a system supported by advertising. “You could listen
to music or read a book on your mobile for free because you are
receiving messages from advertisers and sponsors that you have
selected,” he says. “This is how Google, is able to support Gmail and
other services free of charge. I don’t think North Americans will
oppose receiving ads on their phones as long as they are synchronized
with the content.”
Leonhard warns that if content companies do not develop or adapt to new
payment models, they are in danger of bankruptcy. “Until this year,
most content companies have been trying very hard to control the flow
of money due to their history of monopolies and cartels,” he says.
“Today, they can no longer control the whole system because it’s an
open system. And if we are going for an open platform, all players –
from media companies to telecom – have to collaborate. “The problem is not so much that people don’t want to pay, but finding
the right point of payment. I always say that media content providers
have a ‘toll-booth problem,’ meaning they have put up the booth too
early, and people turn away. If they put the booth in the right place,
I’m convinced people will be willing to pay to get access to their
favorite content.
Bizarrely, the UK government, led by Lord Mandelson, the UK Business Secretary, seems to have done a 180-shift in the past 2 weeks by once again proposing to disconnect alleged file-sharers from the Internet. In other words: if the content industry can't get people to buy music or films, or other so-called content, by offering relevant, fair and affordable new ways to do so, maybe the government can help to force people back into buying the old-fashioned way, i.e. by the unit / copy? Rather than actually change the industry's business model, let's just change the consumers' habits - problem solved!
If you want to be puzzled, just read the UK government's announcement (PDF via Arstechnica). The Net is buzzing with news on this topic; see below. The FT has a good recent update called 'Claws & Effect' here; wherein I read (with little surprise): "Senior music industry figures, such as Lucian Grainge, head of
Universal Music International, have been influential in mobilising
Westminster to act". Lobbyists succeed again?
The bottom line can be summarized like this: "Let's just see if we can still force people to consume music in the way that suits us better". Never mind that the very similar French Sarkozy-'Bruni' proposal was just recently deemed illegal by the French Constitutional Law as well as by the European commission - maybe some good lobbyists can revert that, as well?
Here are a few quotes I have collected on this topic:
Those who like this idea
"John Kennedy, chief executive of IFPI, the organisation representing
the recording industry worldwide, says: “It is not enshrined in any law
anywhere that one has the right to steal music, films and books. There
is a crisis in the economy, and as well as respecting rights we have to
think about the economy and jobs” (FT) Related read: John Kennedy at RSA
“We welcome the government’s recognition that this problem needs to be
addressed urgently, so today is a step forward that should help the
legal digital market to grow for consumers,” the BPI, the music
industry trade body, said. “The solution to the piracy problem must be
effective, proportionate and dissuasive” (FT)
Those who don't like this idea
"Charles Dunstone, chief executive of Carphone Warehouse, one of the
UK’s biggest providers, says: “We are going to fight [being forced to
disconnect customers] as hard as we can. Our fundamental duty is to
protect the rights of our subscribers” (FT)
"A Virgin Media spokesperson said: “We share the government’s
commitment to addressing the piracy problem and recognise that new laws
have an important role to play in this. But persuasion not coercion is
the key to changing consumer behaviour as a heavy-handed, punitive
regime will simply alienate mainstream consumers. The
government should be ensuring a balance of action against repeat
infringers and the rapid development of new legitimate services that
provide a compelling alternative to illegal file-sharing" (FT)
"Internet provider TalkTalk said it would "strongly resist" government
attempts to oblige Internet service providers to act as Internet
police. TalkTalk said disconnecting alleged offenders "will be futile
given that it is relatively easy for determined filesharers to mask
their identity or their activity to avoid detection" (HuffPo)
One of my favorite quotes, via Labour MP Tom Watson: “Challenged by the revolutionary distribution mechanism that is the
internet, big publishers with their expensive marketing and PR
operations and big physical distribution networks, are seeing their
power and profits diminish. Faced with the choice of accepting this and
innovating, or attempting, King Canute-style, to stay the tide of
change, they’re choosing the latter option, and looking to Parliament
for help with some legislative sand bags” (FT)
Some important facts and other related snippets (quotes from various sources):
Proposed EU telecommunications legislation includes a clause stating that internet access is a fundamental human right (FT)
In Ireland, internet companies UPC and BT Ireland have refused to
comply with music companies’ requests to cut off suspected pirates (FT)
The Sunday Times claims that Lord Mandelson,
the business secretary, has been persuaded that pirates should be
deprived of internet access altogether after dining with “Hollywood
mogul” David Geffen *via FT (no surprise here, either;)
I have been saying this since 1999: the solution to illegal filesharing is to legalize the way that people share content online, to create new, public, compulsory licenses for content, starting with music (yes, just like the Radio / Broadcasting license), to create fair and flexible licensing standards, and to reduce control in favor of compensation.
The UK's trend towards increased criminalization is just plain old wrong, technologically absurd and utter fantasy, culturally 500% retro, and socially unjustifiable. Techdirt's Mike Masnick sums it up nicely: "You may kick people off the internet, but does anyone honestly think that will actually get people to buy again?"
The Google guys have just published a video with my talk at [email protected], in San Francisco, March 2, 2009 (see the details here Pdf: The End of Control Gerd Leonhard at Google SF PDF
*22MB). Due to some technical issues my fancy slides (i.e. the stuff on the screen) come across very nicely in this video while I am left a bit 'in the dark' - but if you use the HQ version on the Youtube site you can still get a much better idea of what my face actually looks like (I guess always wearing black is not ideal when the lights are bad;). Anyway, I do think this is one of my best talks, so... watch the entire 55 Mins 22 Secs. As far as the End of Control Book is concerned, I will have an announcement on my plans within the next 10 days...stay tuned.
Here is the official Google Talks description:The End of Control & The Future of Content: The tough
issue of control emerges, again and again, as the key contention point
within TV companies, publishers, record labels, and broadcasters: How
can a commercial venture that is based on so-called intellectual
property thrive and prosper in an environment that seems to
continuously and progressively remove control from the
creators/owners/providers of content, and hands it over to the people
formerly known as consumers (aka the users), effectively making them
more powerful every single day? But the reality is that every
click inadvertently makes another case for the consumers
ever-increasing rise in importance. Within all the conversations I have
had about things like commercial content versus shared content, about
the read-only or the read-write web, and about copyright versus Fair
Use, the crucial question always seems to boil down to WHERE IS THE
CONTROL HERE, i.e., questions such as Who will control this new media
universe and How much control do I need to run a revenue-generating
business?
Keynote Speaker, Think-Tank Leader, Futurist, Author & Strategist, Idea Curator, some say Iconoclast | Heretic, CEO TheFuturesAgency, Visiting Prof FDC Brazil, Green Futurist
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