Think about it for a minute: Google knows our deepest secrets because we search with INTENTION - and in realtime, and often even in real-place (i.e. when using mobile devices) - for the things that matter to us - whether it is an upcoming trip or a disease that we are suffering from, or vexing problem we may have. Google knows all that stuff, and keeps it in their records (unless we take steps to delete it all... allegedly). Facebook, on the other hand, just knows what we SAY, what we share, what we purport to LIKE. That's also quite deep but... there is a big difference. Your thoughs? Browse my Privacy to Publicy links to read more
Some very good points below. I am rather optimistic on facebook's future - and an avid user- but won't buy their stock, at this time;). Not entirely sure why.
"However, the advertising business is dependent on visits to Facebook’s website. As of yet, the company has not built out a compelling mobile advertising platform. And unfortunately for the Facebook investor, mobile internet is becoming increasingly important. Facebook even amended its S-1 to acknowledge the risks to its advertising business from increasing adoption of the mobile format. While this is a surmountable problem, it puts the media company in a very different position than that of Google in 2004 — the company that Facebook is most often compared against. When Google IPO’d in 2004, the company’s advertising business had tailwinds; internet penetration was only at around 68% in the U.S. (let alone the rest of the world) and amount of use per user was also on the rise. Growth in revenues for Google was inevitable. Facebook’s ability to achieve enormous advertising growth, on the other hand, is far less certain.
Hundreds of millions from across the world live “in” Facebook. It more directly (regulating behavior) than any government structures and regulates their lives while there. There are of course limits to what Facebook can do. But the limits depend upon what users see. And Facebook has not yet committed itself to the kind of transparency that should give people confidence. Nor has it tied itself to the earlier and enabling values of the internet, whether open source or free culture.
What countries have the highest Facebook penetration rate, meaning the largest percentage of their population on the social network? The top 10 list is as follows: Cyprus, Hong Kong, Chile, Singapore, Norway, Denmark, the US, Canada, the UK, and Sweden.
"Data is exploding all around us: every 'like,' check-in, tweet, click, and play is being logged and mined. Many data-centric companies such as Google are already paying us for our data by providing more or less free services. Is data the new oil? TFA CEO Gerd Leonhard leads fellow thinkers Stowe Boyd, Jamais Cascio, and Andreas Weigend in an exchange on where data is going, and how we are going along with it. Data will become a key currency, as it is a virtually limitless, non-rival, and exponentially growing good. Do we need regulations or trust frameworks to deal with it? Can data really be safeguarded in an entirely free-market system governed by commercial interests? What will Generation AO (always-on) share with whom, when, where, and how? And if data is the new oil, how do we avoid wars and global conflicts fought over it...?"
Writes John Battelle: "In seminars, writings, conferences, and speaking gigs around the world over the past couple of years, I’ve started using a phrase when asked my opinion of what a brand’s social strategy might be, in particular when it comes to Facebook. The context is nuanced (I’m a fan of integrating Facebook into your brand efforts), but the point is simple: If you are a brand, publisher, or independent voice, don’t put your taproot into the soils of Facebook. Plant it in the independent web. (A bit more on this can be found here).
Now, that doesn’t mean “don’t use Facebook,” not at all. I think Facebook is an extraordinarily important part of the Internet ecosystem, and having a robust presence there is a critical part of any brand (or company’s) strategy.
But Facebook is a for profit, advertising and data-driven company. If you seat mission critical portions of your business inside its walls, you are driving value to Facebook – and you are presuming the trade, in terms of traffic and virality, will come out on balance favoring you. I wouldn’t count on that. Facebook will always have more data than you do about how consumers use the Facebook platform, and will always be able to leverage that data more effectively...."
John is making some important points here: yes, use Facebook to socialize and contextualize your brand, but don't just plant your trees in Facebook's increasingly walled garden.
I have blogged about this many times: social networks are the next broadcasters, and many content creators will start going direct, both for distribution as well as for funding. And we will use networks like facebook mostly on mobile devices - 3 Billion of them, soon.
"Two years ago, Hollywood talent agent Ari Emanuel made a remarkable statement about the future of media. He said he could see a time when certain movies premiered on Facebook instead of in theaters. “For the $150 million movie, you’ll still need to go to Warner Brothers, but for the $25 million movie, probably not,” he said at a San Francisco conference. After a decade of war with Silicon Valley, big chunks of Hollywood’s establishment are thinking about technology differently. Instead of freaking out about how high-tech companies will drain their pockets, Hollywood executives are increasingly looking at deals with firms such as Facebook, Google, Apple and Amazon as a way to line them. As we spend more time online — almost as much time as we spend watching television, according to Morgan Stanley — these companies are becoming TV networks for the digital age. They are hugely valuable advertising and distribution engines for Hollywood content..."
"Facebook revealed impressive statistics about its growing and active userbase, which totals 845 million members, more than half of whom, or 483 million, return to the site daily. These hundreds of millions of users have shared more than 100 petabytes (100 quadrillion bytes) of photos and videos with Facebook, and produced an average of 2.7 billion “likes” and comments a day in the final three months of 2011"
A few days ago, I contributed a few comments to an io9 piece on the future of Facebook - read the whole thing here. Douglas Rushkoff is also quoted (and needless to say, he has a slightly different opinion on Facebook:)
Here are some of my quotes:
"Facebook has a bright future," as long as it can stay "human and open," contends Gerd Leonhard, founder of Green Futurist and author of The Future of Content. "Facebook is infrastructure now, like a highway, or water." He predicts Facebook will rival Google in terms of revenues within three years, and already rivals Google for importance. The main challenge Facebook will face is user fatigue, as it adds more and more services and forms of content...but Leonhard notes that real relationships will always be about the combination of offline and online encounters. And as "offline" and "online" converge, we will stop thinking of them so much as two separate places. People will also be more likely to start grooming their Facebook pages more carefully, and "personal branding will become more of an art form."
In addition, someone just emailed me this illustration below, on what the expect of the Facebook IPO - good fit. Enjoy and RT:)
Here are both parts (90 minutes plus 35 minutes) of my keynote speech on The Future of Content at Colombia 3.0 October 7 2011 see http://www.colombiatrespuntocero.com
The panel discussion afterwards can be viewed here, as well (all in Spanish). Note: even though I am actually presenting in English the overdup is Spanish and very much in the foreground. I will try and get an English version, as well - stay tuned.
El suizo GerlLeonhard, líder futurólogo experto en modelos de comercio electrónico, medios de comunicación e innovación fue el encargado del cierre de la Primera Cumbre Nacional de Contenidos Digitales, Colombia 3.0, realizada por el Ministerio TIC entre el 5 y el 8 de octubre. Después de cuatro días de análisis en los que se reunieron emprendedores, inversionistas, animadores, desarrolladores de aplicación y representantes de la industria de los contenidos digitales del mundo terminó Colombia 3.0. En la cumbre participaron 30 conferencistas nacionales y 50 internacionales, quienes se reunieron en 14 eventos simultáneos.Las distintas actividades y conferencias fueron seguidas en línea en 23 ciudades del país y 15 países. De igual manera se tuvo la participación de Siggraph, una asociación mundial de animación gráfica y técnicas interactivas, espacio en que 19 expertos en animación compartieron sus experiencias exitosas en las firmas más importantes del mundo de esta industria. Bogotá 7 de octubre de 2011.En su intervención GerlLeonhard, realizó un detallado análisis de los cambios que han sufrido los medios tradicionales al migrar a los medios sociales como Facebook, Twitter y otras redes sociales. Además,Leonhard anotó que en la actualidad se vive una cultura de la banda ancha y son los “prosumidores”, consumidores activos, los que producen contenidos digitales.
Mencionó el experto suizo que el mundo digital está regido por la relevancia y no solamente por la distribución, según Leonhard, los contenidos digitales deben ser depurados antes de ser distribuidos a los distintos públicos y subrayó que la nueva economía digital que se está viviendo en la actualidad debe iniciarse desde Internet y especialmente desde los dispositivos móviles. Anotó también Leonhard, que el usuario es quien genera los contenidos digitales en la actualidad através de distintos dispositivos móviles. En su intervención, señaló además que la tendencia actual se desarrolla a través de lo móvil, lo social y lo local. Ademásindicó, en este sentido,que para el 2015se esperaque 7.1 trillones de dispositivos móviles sean usados en el mundo.
Ross Dawson and me recently met in Sydney (where I spoke at the Google ThinkTravel event, on The Consumer of Tomorrow) to do some videos together. The first episode is now live on Youtube, on the Future of Money. I think this turned out quite well and provides some interesting brain-teasers. You?
Ross has a good summary of what we discussed:
* The world of money is opening out in a big way today * Facebook credits are becoming an important alternative currency * Cash will phase out for digital payments * The rise of Bitcoin is important in shifting transactions out of the purvey of governments * In many developing countries mobile phones are becoming the predominant banking platform * Micro-payments for content could work through social media and dominant platforms such as China’s QQ * These could flow into crowdfunding for creative endeavors * Behaviorally we are some way from micro-payments working well * Money will inevitably shift to the cloud
I was invited to do the opening keynote at Ericsson's 'Shaping the Networked Society' event at this year's mobile world congress (MWC) in Barcelona, on February 14, 2011, see my blog at http://gerd.fm/i9Dh9I. Some of the topics I covered include the challenges and opportunities of convergence (TV-Web, Mobile-Fixed, real money - virtual money), new currencies and paying with facebook credits, companies becoming platforms not empires, what is beyond the current social media enthusiasm, the new paradigm of 'interaction before transaction', the tough but inevitabe switch from ownership to access (both in content / media as well as in general), the rise of the 'following paradigm', how the media and content industries are changing, and much more.
Take a look and please spread the word if you like it. Thanks.
My new company, The Futures Agency, just launched its own company page on Facebook, here. Many of TFA's partners will be posting regular updates here, and share videos, slideshows and images, so be sure to come by and LIKE us to stay connected. Thanks!
Keynote Speaker, Think-Tank Leader, Futurist, Author & Strategist, Idea Curator, some say Iconoclast | Heretic, CEO TheFuturesAgency, Visiting Prof FDC Brazil, Green Futurist
Recent Comments