If you are in Sao Paulo Nov 5, please be sure to join me for this event. The video below outlines some of the topics I am planning to talk about. See you there!
If you are in Sao Paulo Nov 5, please be sure to join me for this event. The video below outlines some of the topics I am planning to talk about. See you there!
I will be spending 2 weeks in Brazil, doing 5 speaking gigs, some workshops and many other meetings and get-togethers - really look forward to this!
Meet me in Porto Alegre BRAZIL at the Congress of Innovation Oct 30 / 31, or in Rio Nov 1-4, or Sao Paulo Nov 5-12:)) Some Context is here (Zerohora Newspaper). Don't miss this event on Nov 5 at the Museum of Sound in Sao Paulo; and if you are into advertising and marketing join me for the APG's annual convention in Sao Paulo on Nov 12 (see video below). Ping me if you want to meet up!
*** You can download some of my essays in Portuguese as well as some recent press coverage here (public dropbox folder) ****
From Zerohora: (english-kinda translation by Google here)
"Em uma sociedade cada vez mais conectada pela internet, ganham força a colaboração e a troca de ideias como motores da inovação. Soluções adotadas até recentemente já não se aplicam mais. Quem alerta para essa mudança são dois estudiosos das transformações que a tecnologia vem impondo: o norte-americano Steven Johnson, professor da Universidade de Nova York e autor do best seller De onde vêm as boas ideias — a história natural da inovação, e o alemão Gerd Leonhard, fundador do instituto Green Futurist, também autor de obras como The Future Of Content, entre outras.
A dupla de pensadores do futuro estará participando do 5º Congresso Internacional de Inovação, promovido pela Fiergs, nos próximos dias 30 e 31, em Porto Alegre (informações e inscrições no site www.fiergs.org.br/inovacao2012 ). Johnson e Leonhard anteciparam algumas das ideias que discutirão no evento em entrevistas concedidas por e-mail a Zero Hora. Confira os principais trechos.
Gerd Leonhard — Fundador do instituto Green Futurist
ZH – Como o uso cada vez maior das redes sociais está mudando a forma como as pessoas interagem entre si e se relacionam com as empresas, enquanto consumidores?
Gerd Leonhard – Estamos nos tornando uma sociedade conectada. Em alguns casos, tanto “compartilhamento” e transparência poderá acabar com nossa privacidade, mas, de uma maneira geral, esta nova era traz mais benefícios. Consequências claras disso são um aumento radical do poder dos consumidores, maior transparência política e declínio da corrupção, marketing mais honesto e publicidade mais útil. Deveríamos, aliás, descartar o termo mídias sociais porque não se trata apenas de mídia, mas de algo que chamo de Social OS (sistema operacional social). Cada empresa ou governo deverá se tornar conectado, aberto, transparente e engajado. Caso contrário, iremos ignorá-los.
ZH – Alguns críticos dizem que a internet tornou disponível um grande volume de informação, mas o uso que se faz desse conhecimento é superficial. O senhor concorda?
Leonhard – Em 1971, Marshall McLuhan disse que a aldeia global não é “quieta e harmoniosa”, mas tem dose considerável de barulho e caos. Não é questão de overdose de informação, mas de filtro. É aí que os jornalistas entram: não basta só conteúdo, é preciso contexto. Não se trata só de volume, mas de dar relevância aos fatos.
ZH – A internet já transformou a indústria musical e agora está mudando o cinema, a TV e o mercado literário. As corporações ligadas a esses ramos, porém, parecem não estar faturando como antes. As empresas terão de se habituar a ganhar menos nesta nova realidade?
Leonhard – Na era dos monopólios, as empresas estavam habituadas a margens de lucro fantásticas porque os consumidores não tinham escolha. De agora em diante, os preços por unidade de conteúdo estão caindo, em alguns casos, até 90% – veja o Netflix (serviço de vídeos online) x DVDs. As boas notícias são que mais pessoas podem ser alcançadas por meios digitais, os custos de distribuição são menores e a publicidade está se tornando digital rapidamente – nos próximos três a cinco anos, veremos 50% dos orçamentos publicitários – globalmente, uns US$ 600 bilhões – migrarem para meios digitais, móveis e sociais. Há grandes oportunidades, mas nada será como era 10 anos atrás.
ZH – Atualmente, a Apple é considerada a mais criativa e valiosa empresa do mundo. Essa posição conseguirá ser mantida?
Leonhard – Sou fã da Apple, mas essa visão de mundo extremamente centrada e controlada que a empresa tem não se sustentará. Eles terão mais uns bons cinco anos – a genialidade de Steve Jobs continuará a impulsioná-los nesse período. Startups surgem em toda parte, e a próxima Apple deverá começar a aparecer já em 2013.
ZH – Há quem aposte que o próximo grande embate no setor de tecnologia será entre Google e Facebook. Quem vencerá essa briga?
Leonhard – Há espaço suficiente para cinco ou seis Googles e Facebooks, assim, como hoje existe espaço para DHL, Fedex e outras empresas de correspondência. À medida em que o mundo está se tornando hiperconectado, será mais importante quais problemas as grandes companhias poderão resolver do que quanto elas irão faturar no próximo trimestre.
Cross-posted von Rote Fabrik Zürich
Vorstellung eines Modells einer öffentlichen digitalen Musiklizenz, Stellungsnahmen und Diskussion
Präsentiert vom Konzeptbüro Rote Fabrik gemeinsam mit Dock18 - Institut für Medienkulturen der Welt.
Unterstützt von Digitale Allmend
Der Eintritt zur Veranstaltung ist frei.
BITTE UNTER FOLGENDER ADRESSE ANMELDEN:
http://diemusikflatrate.eventbrite.com/
Die These:
Musik fliesst heute überall, jederzeit und auf allen Geräten, egal ob
wir einen Download oder einen sog. Stream wollen. Der Unterschied
zwischen Anhören und Besitzen ist bereits fast vollkommen verschwunden -
und genau das ist die Herausforderung für die gesamte Musikwirtschaft.
Wir brauchen dringend neue Geschäfts- und Kulturmodelle die diesem
unwiderlegbaren Trend Rechnung tragen.
Programm:
18.30:
Eröffnungsrede / Begrüssung
18.40:
Präsentation: Eine neue Internet Musiklizenz und die Musik-Flatrate: was, wie, wer und warum?
Gerd Leonhard, Autor, Musiker, Futurist und CEO TheFuturesAgency (Basel)
19.00:
Stellungsnahmen zum Thema:
Acht eingeladene Gäste, u.a. Tim Renner / MotorMusic Berlin, Poto Wegener / Swissperform.
Zusätzlich werden eingeladen: Vertreter der SUISA, IFPI, Musikschaffenden, Parteien, IGE.... etc.
Teilnehmer werden nach Zusage umgehend bekanntgegeben
20.00:
Öffentliche Diskussion und Debatte
Update: ein kurzes Video von Gerd
Resourcen zum Thema
Diskutiert wird auf dieser Facebook Page
Twitter Hashtag ab sofort:
#musikzukunft
Vorschlag zum Thema Musik Flatrate, Gerd Leonhard 1. Juni 2012
Das PDF mit dem Vorschlag
Replik der SUISA, IFPI, SwissPerform, Musikschaffende CH et al 'Untaugliche Schnapsdee' vom 6. Juli 2012
Gerd Leonhard's Antwort auf die Replik der SUISA IFPI et al
Tageswoche: Billag für Musik aus dem Netz
Musikmarkt Magazin Deutschland Bericht über die Schweizer Flatrate
Diskussion
Please join me for this debate - should be great fun. Andrew Keen - often called the Anti-Christ of Silicon Valley - is a long-time colleague of mine and even though we don't agree on a lot of things he puts forth about in his 2 most recent books (The Cult of the Amateur, and the newest Digital Vertigo) I respect his work a lot - don't miss this; sparks are sure to fly.
Attendance is limited to 100 people so sign up early (and be sure to log-in at least 20 mins before showtime:)
Fri, Oct 26, 2012 6:00 PM - 7:00 PM CEST i.e. 12 noon EST, 9am PST, 11 pm Sinagpore etc
Gerd Leonhard aka MediaFuturist is a futurist, keynote speaker,
author and CEO of TheFuturesAgency, based in Switzerland. He is (mostly)
a proponent of what he calls 'The Networked Society', the SoLoMo
internet (social, local, mobile) and freemium business models; and
foresees great opportunities in the global empowerment of creators and
consumers powered by digital technology. His latest book is 'the future
of content and can be found on Amazon see http://www.gerd.fm/focbook
Andrew and Gerd will present some of their key insights for approx.
10-15 minutes each, and will then debate the most crucial issues such as
what privacy means in a connected world, whether 'the crowds' are
actually being empowered or not, what the future role of social media
will be, what the true meaning of a networked society is, and what the
media landscape will look like, in the future.
Get ready for some serious sparring - which will also involve the
participants, both via messages and chat as well as via audio
intervention (upon invitation only).
This seminar will be recorded - please be aware of this fact if you
are invited to speak during the session. You can view some of the
previous recordings here: http://gerd.fm/youtubewebi
This session is limited to 100 people so please sign up early; most
importantly please log-in at least 30 mins prior to the starting time.
More about Andrew:
http://www.ajkeen.com/bio/
https://twitter.com/ajkeen
"Andrew Keen has found the off switch for Silicon Valley's reality
distortion field. With a cold eye and a cutting wit, he reveals the
grandiose claims of our new digital plutocrats to be little more than
self-serving cant. Digital Vertigo provides a timely and welcome reminder that having substance is more important than being transparent.
-- Nicholas Carr, author of The Shallows What the Internet Is Doing to Our Brains
More about Gerd
Leonhard
http://www.gerdfuturist.com ... the canvas:)
CEO www.thefuturesagency.com
The Future of Business blog http://www.futureof.biz/
Videos: http://www.youtube.com/gleonhard
http://www.twitter.com/gleonhard
http://about.me/mediafuturist
Please join me for this unique event (there is no charge except for your attention:)
The Future of
Television: Social, Mobile, Over-the-top? With Stowe Boyd and Gerd
Leonhard (The Futures Agency) on Sep 4, 2012 5:00 PM CEST
Social web strategist, speaker and blogger Stowe Boyd and
futurist, speaker & author Gerd Leonhard are delighted to present
this 60-minute, free webinar based on a white paper jointly developed by
Stowe Boyd and TheFuturesAgency entitled 'social TV and the second
screen'.
You can read more about here (and
download it via the link or directly, here )
"The overlap of social media and TV represents a huge opportunity
for those that truly understand and internalize, embrace and partake in
these changes, and that welcome this dawning networked, interdependent
and many-to-many society"
Stowe and Gerd will briefly present some select slides and updates
on the topic of the future of television (10-15 minutes each), followed
by a Q&A session with the participants.
The emphasis of this event is on allowing plenty of time for
questions and discussion; both via chat as well as via audio (upon
individual invitation only).
THIS EVENT IS LIMITED TO 100 PARTICIPANTS. Please sign up early and
be sure to show up at least 30 minute prior to the starting time to
avoid disappointment.
Stowe and Gerd are both members of The Futures Agency network and
often work together holding seminars and think-tank events for media and
technology companies, around the globe see
http://www.thefuturesagency.com/about
Find our more about Stowe Boyd
http://worktalk.ly/about_stowe/
https://twitter.com/stoweboyd/
http://www.thefuturesagency.com/stoweb
Find our more about Gerd Leonhard:
http://www.thefuturesagency.com/gerd
http://www.gerdfuturist.com
Blog: http://www.mediafuturist.com/
Mobile apps: http://road.ie/futurist
The Future of Business blog http://www.futureof.biz/
Videos: http://www.youtube.com/gleonhard
Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/gleonhard
More links: http://about.me/mediafuturist
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.
See you there:)
Should be fun:). More details here.
Fellow media futurist and Futures Agency colleague Ross Dawson and me are delighted to announce this free webinar on July 19, 2012, at 2pm CET, 1pm UK, 8 am EST, 8pm Singapore & HongKong, 7pm Jakarta time. Attendance is limited to 100 people so sign up early. Emphasis will be on discussion and questions rather than presentations.
The Future of Media: Mobile, Social, Cloud... and Paid? With Futurists Ross Dawson and Gerd Leonhard
Join us for a webinar on Jul 19, 2012 at 2:00 PM CEST.
Register now!
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/797gl/register/8547917098258049792
Both Ross and Gerd have spend the past 10 years researching, writing and speaking about the future of media & content, and have worked with over 150 clients in 27 countries on many of the key topics such as monetization and new, web-native business models, curation and filtering, the global shift to mobile devices and what it really means for media, the dramatic convergence of Internet and television, the move from media ownership to cloud access (such as in books or print), the future of advertising (and whether it can fund media productions), crowd-sourcing, UGC and social media, and much more. In this free webinar, Ross and Gerd will present 5 key points on the future of media (print, tv, films, music etc) each - approx. 20 minutes in total - and then take questions from the participants (via the chat functions or twitter). The goal is to have an in-depth, ad-hoc conversation that involves the participants as much as possible. You can also ask questions beforehand, via @gleonhard or @rossdawson #futmedia
PLEASE NOTE: attendance is limited to 100 people - sign up early:)
Find out more about Ross Dawson:
http://rossdawson.com/
https://twitter.com/#!/rossdawson
http://www.youtube.com/user/rossdaht2/videos
Find out more about Gerd Leonhard
http://www.mediafuturist.com/
https://twitter.com/#!/gleonhard
http://www.youtube.com/gleonhard
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.
On May 24th Sberbank will hold the Next Great App conference, dedicated to the future of cellular applications, at Digital October. The conference will be conducted in a talk-show format with the participation of the creators of the most popular applications.
The appearance of smartphones and the iPhone and the development of social networks and services have caused explosive growth of a new area of program development – cellular applications. The most popular games; image, video, and audio-processing programs; instructional programs; and navigation and communications services are downloaded by several million users within a week after release.
Today, the biggest mergers and the most eye-catching startups are taking place in this area, and the greatest rates of increase in the cost of business are related to the sphere of applications. According to the predictions of analysts, this is only the beginning. It is the beginning because the new technologies are simple, easy to use, and are opening up infinite possibilities.
• What sort of possibilities are these?
• How can they affect our lives?
• What will be the next application to make waves?In order to take a look at the future, specialists will assemble at the conference who will share their views on the newest trends and developments in the area of cellular applications. The event program features the world’s most popular developments and a prognosis of the future of cellular technologies.
The special guest of the conference will be Gerd Leonhard, a specialist in the area of digital technologies, communications, and media.
Would be fun to see you there. No idea if this event is open or free - but think so:)
**Get free mobile apps: http://road.ie/futurist
Wired UK's Duncan Geere has just published a really astute summary of my keynote at the annual SPOT music conference in Arhus, Denmark, see below. It's not that I haven't been saying this for the past 10 years but I think I may have phrased it all a bit bitter:) See the slides below; and feel free to download my Music 2.0 book, here.
"At the Spot music conference in Århus, Denmark, musician and futurist Gerd Leonard discussed a series of possible futures for the music business. Leonhard isn't a fan of how the record industry has been run over the last decade or so. "The whole economy of music is based on big companies owning the rights. It's unsustainable," he said, comparing the major record labels to big oil companies.
"Do big oil companies represent nature?" he asked. "Of course not. Do the big record labels represent music? Probably not." Leonhard sketched out the reasons why people pirate music, blaming high costs and a lack of legal alternatives, and he also argued that cracking down on filesharing doesn't benefit artists. "We had 52,000 people sued in Europe over copyright infringement," he said. "That earned nothing for the artists. Only the lawyers."
But Leonhard is optimistic, arguing that music is simply migrating into something larger. "The business model of merely selling 'copies' of music is over," he said. "Let's redefine the meaning of selling. No-one knows what it means." Leonhard is a firm believer in the power of access models over ownership ones. Models where you pay a small recurring subscription fee to gain access to an enormous jukebox in the sky, just like Spotify (which he says he's a big fan of).
Leonhard claims that it would only require each person in Europe to pay two euros each month to generate revenues larger than the global music industry. That's not necessarily a practical thing to demand individuals to do, but companies have begun to roll subscriptions of this nature into other products, making this music tax more palatable. Telecoms providers have begun to bundle music subscriptions into their contracts, which is a way of making music "feel like free" to the consumer.
But that's not quite enough, he said, projecting a list of hundreds of legal music services from across the world onto a screen, compiled by the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry (IFPI). He claimed that most of them are dead or dying: "90 percent of the legal music services are bankrupt, or there but sorta not doing anything," he said.
To fix this, compulsory licenses, like radio licenses, are needed. "The free markets won't fix this problem. They won't work. We need must-license provisions, public oversight, regulation for the common good," Leonhard said."In 2017, we'll have five billion connected devices," says Leonhard. "75 percent of that will be mobile, accessing 50 or so platforms of content, sharing a €250 billion ad market."
To capitalise on that potential, Leonhard says, music companies are already diversifying beyond simply selling records. Labels have begun taking a chunk of all sorts of revenues -- merchandise, touring, premium content, sync licensing (getting music on television, and in adverts and movies) and other sources. "We're going to make money in 50 different ways. The first music business was a grand illusion."
Ok... so far so good. There are 2 things you may want to look at in this context:
My slideshow from today:
My 2020 video on Music Like Water (via Ericsson)
See below - this event is very high-level and at a really great location; invite-only so please email me if you want to attend and I shall take it from there.
Here is my short letter via the Terrapinn blog announcing my opening keynote speech at the World eReading Summit in London, May 15/16, 2012.
"I am a longtime commentator on how the digital, mobile and social-media revolution has left Publishers reeling and in a state of total change or even disruption. This is a call to action to transform your business to embrace and conquer the digital age. Failure to do so will mean inevitable friction, market confusion and possibly a dysfunctional content ecosystem, when on the other hand you could stand to profit from long term revenue generating opportunities.
It is often said that where attention flows money follows (*Kevin Kelly kk.org), but the question is how, where and when to convert them. Today, digital natives are viewers, users, followers, friends, co-creators, co-producers or crowd-sourced collaborators, all-in-one. Going forward, data is becoming the new oil, and understanding, analysing, predicting and staying ahead of your ‘connected consumers’ is quickly becoming a MUST for your business in 2012 and beyond!
So far, technological content protection measures have not been successful. Instead, future ‘protection’ will need to come from the business models and from social cohesion. Delivering tangible value and inventing new free, freemium, feels-like-free models will be crucially important. Just look at Skype, Spotify, Amazon and the undisputed master of ‘free’ – Google. You need to asses the role ‘free’ will play in your business. How will you monetize your content and which new and innovative revenue generating concepts will transform the commercial prospects of your business? Yes, methods of monetizing content are fragmented, but also much more powerful, immediate and liquid than ever. This industry, this transitional period and the World e-Reading Congress 2012 are all key opportunities to harness your digital footprint and develop strategies that will pay dividends in solid revenue. I look forward to meeting you all at the World e-Reading Congress next May.”
Gerd Leonhard, CEO, The Futures Agency – Opening Keynote Speaker 2012.
Many of you may be following my various Twitter streams such as @gleonhard (my main and most popular channel, usually delivers short comments on what I read elsewhere, always-a-link-concept), @futuresagency (my company's account, with news, updates and retweets from our partners and speakers), @dailywisdoms (the name says it all), @futurefeed (where all Futures Agency partners can tweet futuristic stuff they find relevant), @futurememes (where we are building a video-centric twitter stream based on the budding FutureMemes.org tumblr blog), @music2dot0 (all tweets pertaining to the topic of my 2nd book, Music 2.0) or @derfuturist (tweets and updates in German, mostly).
What is sometimes lacking is the ability to actually reply publicly and have something akin to a conversation, i.e. less broadcast and more narrowcast. This has been hard to do using my @gleonhard account because many of my followers seem to find it rather irrating to see too many replies in my twitter stream, and have let me know that they don't like to have to follow other people's conversation.
I have therefore decided to establish a twitter channel that is dedicated only to conversations, at @talktogerd . You can follow me there and ask any question you want, or comment on my work, and I will try to respond to you right away. I hope you like the idea and will follow me there, as well.
This ITU’s Quickfire Storytelling session brings together some of the world’s leading futurists to share bold ideas and conflicting predictions of how the world might look in 10 years’ time.
-> October 26, 2011, Palexpo, Geneva, starting 16h, Storytelling Session #2 F17
The adoption of connected technologies is driving change at an unprecedented rate. ICTs will transform the very nature of business, education and the way that global citizens communicate and share information. Short snappy stories will offer insights into the future, from a variety of perspectives in a variety of styles. These science-fiction tales will be based on science-fact; sometimes contentious, sometimes irreverent, but always thought-provoking, will catalyze dynamic debate.
Gerd Leonhard, CEO, The Futures Agency
Rachel Armstrong, Senior TED Fellow, Senior Lecturer, University of Greenwich
Simon Torrance, Founder 2.0 Initiative, and Chief Executice Officer, STL Partners
Juliana Rotich, CEO, Ushahidi Inc.
Rohit Talwar, CEO, Fast Future
All stories will be presented in the Quickfire Format: 10 slides // 30 seconds per slide // up to 10 words or an image per slide // once they click they can’t stop. This session was co-curated with The Futures Agency.
This should be a pretty amazing event - really look forward to finally visit Colombia.
Here is a PDF with the program: Download Programa_Colombia2309
9:00 AM - 12:30 PM OCTOBER 8
Gerd Leonhard, el Futurolo más importante del mundo en el sector de las Telecomunicaciones e Internet, en su conferencia abordará dos temáticas importantes para la industria; "Global trends and foresights: The Future of content in a digital society" y "The future of content: Where is the money?, How to monetize content in a digital society". Habrá lugar para un panel de discución con Alejandro González, CEO de Braiz Games- a Zio studio, Liliana Andrade de Parlante Amarillo y Tuyo Isaza.
This is an invitation-only event - ping me if you are interested. PDF: Download DES2011
Keynote Speaker, Think-Tank Leader, Futurist, Author & Strategist, Idea Curator, some say Iconoclast | Heretic, CEO TheFuturesAgency, Visiting Prof FDC Brazil, Green Futurist
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