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Entries categorized "Recession survival"
April 24, 2009
April 16, 2009
A key topic for 2009: EGOsystem becomes ECOsystem, yelling becomes talking, traditional Marketing...dies!
Image by gleonhard via Flickr
I touched upon this in my presentation at the Mobile Monday event in Amsterdam: I think we are going through a totally amazing and very challenging paradigm shift, right now (and this may still be a somewhat delayed consequence of the Internet (r)evolution and the first .com bubble): From EGO to ECO, from Control to Openness, from Domination to Collaboration. A few examples:
- The amazing shifts in U.S. policy and America's new global role: when President Obama implements his far-reaching plans to rewire how America works we will see this new trend towards win-win solutions rub-off everywhere else, too, and kick off chain-reactions in many other, traditionally more dominance-focused countries such as Russia, as well (and the reverse is also true). The old Bushinator mantra 'You lose - we win' has simply become unsustainable in today's networked economy, and America will doubtlessly struggle with this shift from domination to partnering for quite some time. However, I definitely anticipate a strong trend towards open systems and open platforms in the global economic and political spheres - as well as in technology and content / media - with utter transparency and TRUST becoming the key requirements for success, everywhere. There will no doubt be considerable debate on what this trend means for copyright and patent laws, globally, too, since these laws have traditionally been used for shoring up market-shares and protecting the interests of the large, dominant players in many industries.
- The music industry: the decline - or shall we say gradual vaporization - of most major record industry players due to their amazingly persistent obsession with control, makes a great case study. Rather than to finally permit new revenues to be co-developed via collaborating on win-win scenarios, the IFPI and RIAA are still looking for new enforcement and protection mechanisms such as the now flamed-out '3 strikes & out' legislation - it does make you wonder if their 'leaders' have lived under a rock for the past 5 years! In any case, the music industry is the prime example why monopolistic and totally centralized structures will simply not work in the future, and why we need governme
nt intervention when a market place is clearly dysfunctional. Many of my readers know that I have been talking about this for a looooong time, but now we are finally seeing it take shape: the music rights organizations and their related content licensing processes will undergo significant and sweeping changes in the next 2-3 years; everything is moving from a 'not allowed / not possible' default mindset to a more collaborative, open, flexible, transparent and public rights licensing logic - and they must adapt or get out of the way. The bottom line: If it's not based on a web-centric and connected logic it will cease to exist. As an example, the current conflict between the Music Performing Rights Organizations (PROs and MROs) such as PRS, GEMA and Youtube is based on this basic paradigm disparity: PRS and GEMA are thinking of the music rights still being firmly and exclusively their business (i.e. an EgoSystem), and Youtube/Google think of music rights as being a crucial component of a new, 21st century content ecosystem that concerns everyone and should not be governed by monopolies and cartels. Therefore, for Google I reckon that the music rights issue is something that must go far beyond the traditional structure that's based on 'I own the rights, exclusively, and you'll need to pay whatever I ask for'. My prediction is that if the traditional rights-holders and the many societies that represent them don't materially change their thinking on this very soon, they may wall see a wide-spread revolt of their younger, more progressive members, because they know that not permitting the use of music on Youtube (and Google!) is simply a suicidal move, in terms of getting attention and building your brand. Get off the Ego and think Eco!
I
Image by gleonhard via Flickr - Microsoft's Windows OS is becoming less and less dominant (and relevant, too) as 'free' and cloud-based operating systems are gaining ground everywhere (Linux, Google)
- Most telcos, mobile operators and ICT companies are trying to switch from the traditional 'total control of the network, the infrastructure and the users' to open platforms as fast as they can (e.g. AT&T's open source plans, Skype's open Silk codec, Nokia's Open Symbian Foundation, Google's Android Mobile OS)
- In software, the continuing trend towards open-source and crowd-sourcing is clearly visible everywhere (e.g. the huge success of Firefox vs IE, and the rise of open-source DMBS)
- Many large corporations are starting to move into crowd-sourcing, wanting to pursue increased openness in return for a chance to realize network-economy benefits. E.g. Glaxo Smith Kline's recent move to release a huge amount of cancer research data into public domain (Note: in this context, I highly recommend Yochai Benkler's fantastic book "The Weath of Networks")
- The mind-boggling popularity and global success of API-driven web portals and platforms (Twitter's amazing growth, Friendfeed, the new Facebook 'River', widgets, the UK Guardian's open API etc)
- For many large companies as well as for SMEs (small medium size enterprises), Social Media is quickly becoming CRM (customer relationship management) - rather than running expensive ads that talk about 'Me' and how great the new product is (i.e. Ego), the switch to 'having conversations with the customers aka users' is visible everywhere: Ford's new Fiesta campaign, Kraft's cool iPhone app. Brands can no longer be just BIG EGOs - they are part of Ecosystems, too.
- In Advertising, the entire paradigm of 'we'll yell until you listen' is finished - this concept was all about the Ego of the brands, and about us, the people formerly known as consumers, listening. Now it's all about the Ecosystem: Do you come recommended? Who trusts you? What makes you worthy of my consideration? Why should I pay attention to you? Who vouches for you? Who has told me about you? Are you open and transparent? Here, too, Egosystem has become Ecosystem, and a Trillion $ industry is changing as a consequence - from Push to Pull, from Yelling to Talking / Listening. Tough gig but... a gold mine if you can make it ;)
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February 11, 2009
Dining 2.0: it's the EXPERIENCE (and the good content)
I just had a very unique and nicely futuristic experience eating at the Inamo Restaurant in London, with Omid Ashtari (who works at Google in London), who turned me on to this amazing place.
If you want to get a glimpse of the future - and I mean beyond eating - you should check it out: the interactive ordering system really rocks and is based on a surface computing system (MSFT I would guess - but yes, it did work well;) that is projected onto your table. You can change the color of your table's surface, select, view and order food (of course), and even play battleship (see first picture, below), in case your lunch date is utterly boring (nope, not in this case;). I have added a few photos below.
But here is the key point: I will most definitely come back here, because:
- It's really easy and great fun to use this system to order & browse the menu (and I probably ended up ordering more than I should have, because of it!) - even for non-geeks, I think
- It's a great idea to be able to change your environment at the click of the mouse (i.e. apply your own table surface designs)
- It works very well and there is no waiting time to make a new order
- You can watch the chef via your table surface, if desired
- The food is fantastic (and that, of course, is crucial, too)
All in all: the content was great (i.e. the food) but the CONTEXT - the Experience is what makes it rock. Lesson learned: Dining 2.0 > Media 2.0 > Content 2.0 - right?
Youtube, of course, has some videos on Inamo, too, like this one
January 28, 2009
Davos09: A crisis and failure of leadership (via Jeff Jarvis & BuzzMachine)
Read this:::: Davos09: A crisis and failure of leadership « BuzzMachine. Jeff offers some real nuggets here, and so does Richard Edelman with his 10th Trust Barometer (video below, sorry for the bad sound... it's UGC I guess)
January 13, 2009
Open Really is King - especially now!
Update: this news just came in -what a great fit! Genachowski Likely to Champion Openness as FCC Chief (ECommerce Times) Open source was on a roll in 2008, already, but in the 'Crisis & Change Year' 2009 I think we will finally witness the obvious superiority of open systems (and not just in software). Here are some of the trends I see:
- The use of open source technologies for databases will continue to increase dramatically (see this cNet column); in a down economy this is of course not surprising
- Open source mobile OSs (such as Symbian and Android) will continue to gain market-share over Windows Mobile and others, simply because they offer a much superior speed of development
- Apple's iTunes DRM has just been dropped - and now watch what will happen elsewhere! Having said that, Apple is of course not known for their openness (to put it mildly) - but my hunch is that they will start getting off the control button this year, as well.
- Mozilla's Firefox already has over 20% market-share, and Google Chrome is gearing up, as well
- I predict that Facebook will be making radical strides to be more open, this year (see below); partly to compete with Google Connect
- A key embodiment of OPEN - the 'API Culture' - is seriously booming (I think Twitter alone has over 300 services based on their API), and this will only increase in 2009
- Cloud computing is on the rise, everywhere - and open systems are a must for many of these applications
- Mobile networks are slowly being forced to get off on their walled-garden approaches (even though the U.S. is lacking behind in this process, see below)
- "Permission and revenue sharing rather than legal action" seems to be a trend that we can clearly see in online video, for 2009. Witness Youtube, where rather than constantly asking for take-downs, the major TV networks are starting to go for revenue shares, instead (while Warner Music Group is now removing their music videos, bizarrely - another proof that some of the major music companies are heading for the cliff at the highest possible speed?)
- Print media is getting a lot more open about syndication, full-length feeds and integrating pro-am creators such as bloggers (see my action items, here). The NYT is certainly moving in the right direction here
Related stuff:
* the essential choice we all face: openness vs control (Jeff Jarvis in the Guardian) "That is the nature of the Google economy. I call it the law of open networks: the more open a network is, the more control there is at the edges, the more the edges value the network, the more the network is worth. Bottom line: if you want to exploit the network that is the internet, you can't try to control it. That is the network paradox..."
* Wireless networks in the U.S. still not open (Business Week) "Openness and Revenues Will Go Together. So can we ever get to openness? Yes. But it will take a while. Market forces are pushing the
Image by gleonhard via Flickr carriers toward more openness. (Who would have thought even three or four years ago that we would ever have carriers endorse the concept of open networks?) It's likely that the best chance we have for truly open networks will come in the next three to five years as the next generation of 4G networks (LTE, WiMAX) are widely deployed. The advent of new device types (not just smartphones, but also Mobile Internet Devices and netbooks) will require a reevaluation of carrier testing and certification processes as well. Carriers will eventually be forced to abandon their current "open but highly controlled" philosophy...."
* Techdirt's Mike Masnick on Openness: underestimating the importance and overestimating the dangers: "Closed systems tend to look more elegant at first -- and often they are much more elegant at first. But open systems adapt, change and grow at a much faster rate, and almost always overtake closed systems, over time. And, once they overtake the closed systems, almost nothing will allow them to go back..."
December 17, 2008
eMarketer's Predictions for 2009 (good read & think)
Image by gleonhard via Flickr
As usual, some good stats and trends here: eMarketer's Predictions for 2009 - eMarketer. Most of it is good news, I think.
The nuggets:
- Video ad spending will run counter to overall economic developments, rising by 45% in 2009 to reach $850 million
- Search marketing spending will grow by 14.9% in 2009, to $12.3 billion. Search marketing is not recession-proof, but it is recession-resistant.
- Total US Internet ad spending will increase to $25.7 billion in 2009, an 8.9% growth rate.
- Online retail sales (excluding travel) will grow by only 4% in 2009—the first full year to feel the impact of the economic crisis.
- E-commerce will be a growing revenue stream for social network sites. Expect both MySpace and Facebook to enhance their self-serve advertising systems to allow consumers and businesses to buy and sell real-world goods and services.
- Traditional Media: Continues Hurting: Newspaper advertising will continue to decline in the new year more than any other medium. Industry-wide cutbacks will continue, and there will be some consolidation.
- The 800-lb. online video gorilla, YouTube, announced in Q4 2008 that it would carry full-length television programs supported by ads. Expect to see similar properties compete with it in 2009.
December 15, 2008
2009: The year of Re-Designing the Content Business
I am planning to dedicate a good chunk of my 2009 time and energy to this crucial topic: what are those new, web-native, social & inter-connected business models that will power the future of content creators and their industries?
In 2008, the disruptive force of the Internet has finally hit home, and - as is usually the case - it all came much later than we had estimated but the disruption is also much bigger than expected. A quick look at some trends in this context:
- Newspaper revenues are seriously down (25% in some cases); and magazines and other print media are severely challenged, as well
- Digital music revenues are still going up, overall, but very very very far from enough to stop the free-fall of the recorded music industry, in general (approx 20%, globally, would be my estimate for 2008) *pennies for $$, see below
- DVD sales are declining, worldwide, prices are falling, too - and this will only accelerate next year
- Online video views and audiences are up a lot - but so far pretty much everybody has trouble making any real money with online video
My hunch is that the Internet may well - and soon - bring us an utterly scary reduction of traditional content models that is somewhere in the neighborhood of 1:5, i.e. if you keep relying on the old 'disconnected' content revenues models you may eventually see only 1/5th of the financial returns that you had before. This could vary by industry, location and context, of course, but I would dare say that if you stick to your old models the future will be bleak, either way - and this goes for the actual creators but even much more so for the businesses that are build around them.
To me, the bottom line is that most of what used to work just fine in a disconnected world of 'totally segregated consumers and producers' will simply not work in the future.
This is why I think 2009 will be year of:
- Totally exploding consumer / user / fan / listener / viewer empowerment (yes, you ain't seen nothing yet - wait until 2 Billion + people are wirelessly connected via increasingly smart and easy-to-use mobile devices)
- Re-inventing content commerce (such as: charge for access... not just units, bundle content into access, freemium etc)
- Re-evaluating copyright as that sacrosanct, sole, principal, or even main driver of revenue - the solution for what I like to call 'digital payment-refusal' aka piracy is not a technological issue but a business problem
- Re-inventing advertising (since new kinds of advertising will no doubt be one of the future drivers of content commerce, as well)
- Getting the telecoms and network operators aboard - for they can't make it work without content, either!
I do have a hunch that this old Chinese proverb holds a part of the solution: “Tell me and I'll forget; show me and I may remember; involve me and I'll understand.” Stay tuned for 2009 - this will be fun.
December 12, 2008
Best of 2008 Blog Posts and Essays now available for reading on your iPhone (via Instapaper)
Along with the free iPhone version of my 2007 Music 2.0 book, my new Lulu-powered eBook "Best of 2008 Blog Posts & Essays" is now available
to read on the iPhone, as well (yes, for free), using the very cool Instapaper iPhone reading app - and it works offline, too. Follow the instructions below, or add the Instapaper "Read Later" bookmark for this html page. I am still working on page breaks etc, so it's not very pretty yet - but if any of you can make a nicer-looking html file from the original PDF... please ping me!
This is what you need to do to read the free book on your iPhone (perfect for those long, offline airplane trips!):
- Download the Instapaper app to your iPhone (or iTunes), via the app store or via the Instapaper site. Note that there is a free version and a paid version ($ 9.99 USD, which is well worth it because of the cool tilt scrolling!), but both work very well
- Install the app, sign up / register, go to the Best of 2008 Book html page, and mark it 'ADD' or 'Read Later" via the Instapaper.com page or the bookmarklet. It will now save the file and sync it with your iPhone the next time you open the Instapaper app and update it.
Enjoy!
December 04, 2008
6 survival tips to prepare for a tough 2009: time-wasters will become life-savers
Image by gleonhard via Flickr
I have recently been getting a flood of requests from clients, my social network 'friends' and my blog readers to talk about what I could recommend as far as surviving (or even prospering) in the current economic downturn goes. As most of you know, I am not an economist or a financial expert, so instead of talking about markets, money, restructuring and ROI I figured I would talk about how to build an audience around your brand, and how to use that audience and the Internet's juice to capture new opportunities for yourself and your company. Here it goes:)
1) Network Network Network. This is the time to tap into the power of the crowd & the cloud. 2009 will be the year that everyone - no matter what business they are in and what current position they have - will seek to connect with like-minded and highly selected people using social and business networks, from LinkedIn to Xing to Facebook and many other ones. We will also see an increasing blurring of the lines between social and business contacts, as well, as business matters become even more completely and publicly intertwined with who you are, as a person. However, the actual networking platforms are likely to remain purpose-specific (which is what I really like about LinkedIn, btw) but we will use several different services at the same time, segmenting our network and contacts accordingly. On my end, I am keeping LinkedIn connections limited to people I have actually met, face to face (mostly), Facebook is where I tend to be more open and accept most connections (but not all, either), and Twitter is wide open, for me.
Maintaining business and personal relationships in an open, transparent yet careful and individual way will soon become a crucial reason for if and why we get asked to join a project or to work with others, or not. It is already common practice that we check each other out on LinkedIn before we even commit to a meeting or a phone/skype call, and this will of course increase in 2009. Never mind plain old Googling; if you are not listed on something like LinkedIn, if you're not visible and commented-on in some peer-generated way, if you don't have a site / blog / feed / profile, and (to a lesser extend) if you don't use Twitter or in some other way share your 'river', in many cases you just won't be considered. It's being part of the Tribe (as Seth Godin likes to say) that is starting to matter more than ever before. So get connected, get the network humming, and join the tribes that are in your areas of interest.
This trend will become even more pronounced with the new Open Social, Google and Facebook Friend Connect offerings: You will do a lot more business if you are connected to the right people (this sounds like verbiage from the 50s... but it's true!), and if they are connected to you, and these platforms will make it even easier. Soon, however, it's not enough that you are just part of a network, but what you will actually do there.
So, here is my advise for getting ready for the battle of 2009: spend some time on building high quality profiles, inviting the right people, networking with your peer groups, and building your social capital. What looked like a major time-waster when I first got involved (i.e. LinkedIn back in 2003 I believe) has now become a true life-saver - we all need qualified and pre-approved connections that we can easily use when push comes to shove, and this is one of the best ways to do it. Lastly, give yourself a nice Christmas present, buy Yochai Benkler's book "The Wealth of Networks" - it rocks.
2) Show people who - what - where you really are. This trend is becoming more pronounced every single day: if you don't publish anything about yourself, who you are, what is special about you, what you stand for, and yes, what you may offer, sell or provide, nobody will care about pinging you in the first place. Today, if you are '404'-person-not-found on the Net, it usually means one of 3 things: a) you live in one of the few remaining, so-called developing countries that has not yet been uprooted by the Internet b) you are a bona-fide but under-the-radar VIP and are thus exempt from any such trivial need for self-presentation c) You apparently haven't done anything worth mentioning in the past 5 years - at least this will be people's perception when 
they Google you!
In either case, a total lack of any content about you (or your company, your project or your creations) is already enough to make most more connected people suspicious, and this trend will drastically increase in 2009. No network, no 'friends', no comments, no links - and many people will feel reluctant to do business with you. This is the new power, and maybe also the curse, of the paradigm of hyper-transparency.
So how to show people who you really are? My recipe: publish stuff that you care about, content that's personal, unique and different, such as updates on your social networks, book reviews on Amazon, Flickr pictures from your mobile phone, playlists from last.fm, Ovi (Nokia) sharing updates, blog posts, comments, videos... whatever you feel most inclined to get involved with. Does it take time? Yes, but guess what: this new process of sharing will actually grow on you, and these previously considered time-wasting activities will become an important part of what you do. Suddenly, what once looked like seriously wasting time starts looking like a good investment: a powerful network may yet spring from the wasteland of bizarre tweets, bad blog posts and random Internet friending - we just need to learn how to juggle it all a lot better. Just like 10-12 years ago, when email was often considered a waste of time and it was mostly geeks that had an email address - now it has become the essential tool for business communication. No email, no pings, no business. In 2009, it will start to become just the same for social and business networks. And yes, soon, email will really be for old people ;)
3) Have real conversations. In 2009, you can stop pushing yourself, your products and your marketing messages via email, newsletters, snail mail, phone calls or print ads; and you can stop yelling at people to get them to pay attention to you. Start pulling them in by being part of conversations, by adding value to something that exists already. Show people that you care about an issue or a topic, signal that you have something of value to give, and they will ask who you are and what you do, and invite you to show them your goodies.
Broadcast less to the masses, and start narrow-casting to the ones that actally want you (this, btw, is the Future of Advertising, in my view). If they don't yet know that they should want you, show yourself and your value in an irresistible way: give something
of value, for free. Add value and get value.
Cool down on the monologue (ouch, yes, I should be talking!) and get into 'duo-logs' i.e. conversations. Yes, this is really though; but the times of winning-by-sheer-dominance, of closing a deal because of sheer force, of 'I talk you listen', of monopoly of attention are coming to an end. In the future, you simply won't be hired if you can't talk with people, if you can't listen, if you can't attract rather than force, whether you're a lawyer, a CEO, a marketing exec or an artist. This is what I like so much about Twitter, btw: I can have real conversations with people, as microscopic as they may be. I can check them out very quickly, by looking at their links, and their followers etc, and I can get as engaged as I want - but it's all out in the open.
4) Don't think Money - think Attention, Trust, Merit (Money2.0). This is crucial: the new currency in this hyper-connected economy, is Attention and Trust, based on Merit. In other words, if what you do is good, if it has value, if it maintains that value, over and over again, and if you can get attention repeatedly (by publishing that value in the right context), and if you can get people to trust you and spend time with you, then the money, the remuneration, a very tangible economic benefit will be forthcoming, without a doubt. Money is a consequence of attention, not the other way round.
On my end, during the past 3 years, I have switched my approach completely: I publish, I pull, I try to maintain a reasonable level of quality, and I trust this will return economic benefits. And it has, indeed: 2009 looks more busy than ever before. I believe that when you ask "how does this come back with real $$ attached to it" too early, it deflates your momentum just when you need it the most. Don't ask 'how can I make money with this' but ask 'how do I add value with this, and will I get people to pay attention and trust me with this (and of course - do I enjoy doing this!)'. Again, money is a consequence not the root (and there are other ways of remuneration, as well, not to forget) - just don't miss the point when you can harvest it!
5) Look for new collaborations, unusual partnerships and disruptive alliances. In this highly volatile and fast-moving environment, many of our roles are constantly shifting. Telecoms become content services, mobile phone makers go into the music business, airlines start social networks, newspapers get into TV production, search engines start communities, advertising agencies become R&D departments for major brands. In the near future, a lot more things will be a lot more connected than we have ever thought possible. Your skills and what you have to offer may all of a sudden become a lot less sough-after in your traditional line of work but suddenly become a must-have in a totally unrelated field. Musicians become creators of brand-icons and corporate logos, video-making amateurs become content curators for digital TV services, bloggers become brand evangelists, marketers become social network influencers. Review your assumptions as to what you can do, look for disruptive ideas in whatever sector you are currently working in - and when the rising tide hits you jump into the raft and float with it.
6) Go for creativity. Now. In this world of ever smarter machines, devices and software, the value of so-called facts, computations and logic is greatly commoditized. If Google tells me the answer to just about every fact that I may want to investigate, the ability to connect those facts, at random, and to create context, to blend them, to envision, to compose... is where the new values lie. New jobs are emerging as we speak, and they will not be taught at schools and universities any time soon. Pursue creativity, and the future is yours.
Gerd Leonhard
Keynote Speaker, Think-Tank Leader, Futurist, Author & Strategist, Idea Curator, some say Iconoclast | Heretic, CEO TheFuturesAgency, Visiting Prof FDC Brazil, Green Futurist
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